Road to the Derby 2018: Louisiana Derby analysis

Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby; 1 1/8 miles; Fair Grounds; March 24, 2018
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Noble Indy, by Take Charge Indy
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

Pletcher calls NOBLE INDY “a work in progress,” but the work being done with him is helping him progress, for he earned a career-best Beyer Figure in this, his fourth start and his first with blinkers. Noble Indy has moved forward on the Beyer scale every time, and continued improvement would certainly make him a candidate to at least hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, which will be his next start.

On the plus side for Noble Indy, it does seem as though he’s capable of better, as he idled when hitting the top here and showed courage to battle back and win, especially after attending a strong pace set by the rank outsider MARMELLO. The knock on Noble Indy, and this field overall, is that I think we’ve seen better preps this year in Arkansas, California, and Florida, leaving me with the impression, at this stage, that Louisiana has been the weakest regional during racing’s version of March Madness.

In this race, Noble Indy bobbled slightly leaving the gate but quickly advanced to take a forward position just inside of Marmello heading into the first turn. He was a bit headstrong, and Velazquez was able to wrestle him back a bit and let Marmello go and allow Noble Indy to get outside Marmello around the first turn. Noble Indy still wanted to do more than Velazquez preferred when heading down the backstretch while just outside Marmello, was going well within himself when he inherited the lead three furlongs out when Marmello began to fade, opened a clear lead on the far turn, was headed by LONE SAILOR in upper stretch, but came back bravely in the final sixteenth to prevail, and then galloped out well, as though there was more in the tank.

Lone Sailor, who was second, lacked early speed and was quickly guided to the rail coming to the wire the first time to save ground, advanced while hugging the rail down the backstretch, had to wait a bit three furlongs out before moving around the tiring Marmello, moved sharply to get to and then pass Noble Indy in upper stretch, drifted out in midstretch, then drifted back in, which Velazquez said helped Noble Indy surge anew. It was a career-best effort for Lone Sailor, but I’m not sure he wants any farther than nine furlongs.

MY BOY JACK, who was third, broke out slightly at the start, was taken in hand and allowed to trail early while racing in the clear, was well behind his nine rivals heading down the backstretch, saved ground initially on the far turn before being wheeled outside, came into the stretch in the six path, looked as though he was the winner a furlong out, but just couldn’t quite finish off the race.

GIVEMEAMINIT, who finished fourth, raced mid-pack while saving ground around the first turn, followed Noble Indy while knifing between Marmello and BRAVAZO on the far turn, was right on the hip of Noble Indy heading into the lane, but got tired, drifted out, and raced on his wrong lead for much of the stretch run before swapping back to his correct lead a sixteenth out. He gave his all, but he’s just not this good.

SNAPPER SINCLAIR, who was fifth, raced mid-pack while wide around the first turn and was floated out a bit when Bravazo lugged out into RETIREMENT FUND, advanced into a menacing position while three paths wide on the far turn, but went evenly through the lane. He deserved a chance to run on dirt this spring and performed well enough in the Lecomte and Risen Star, but he appears to be a better horse on grass.

HYNDFORD, who was sixth, raced in the two path while toward the latter half of the field around the first turn, went into the far turn in the three path, but was always outrun.

Retirement Fund, who was seventh, got carried out a bit into the first turn by Bravazo, was just inside Snapper Sinclair into the backstretch, got shuffled back a bit on the turn when in some traffic, but had absolutely nothing to offer when clear.

Bravazo, who was eighth, lugged out a bit into the first turn, forcing out both Retirement Fund and Snapper Sinclair, was just outside Noble Indy into the backstretch, lugged out severely on the far turn, drifted to about the five path entering the lane, and was sympathetically ridden through the final furlong when the cause was lost.

DARK TEMPLAR, who was ninth, broke a bit slowly, raced three paths wide on the first turn while toward the back of the field, continued wide down the backstretch and wound up about five paths wide entering the far turn, never picked up his feet at any point and was allowed to coast home under his own power through the lane.

Marmello, who finished last of 10, had sharp speed leaving the gate, crossed over to the rail early on the clubhouse turn, led narrowly over Noble Indy down the backstretch, but began to tire entering the far turn and then faded badly.