Road to the Derby 2018: Lexington Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes; 1 1/16 miles; Keeneland; April 14, 2018
(20 Derby qualifying points for a win, 8 for second, 4 for third, 2 for fourth)

Winner: My Boy Jack, by Creative Cause
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 90

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

MY BOY JACK originally was scheduled to go straight to the Kentucky Derby after his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, but to guarantee he had enough points to run in the Derby he needed to go here and finish at least second. His victory secured a berth following a busy spring for him, with races at Oaklawn, Fair Grounds, and Keeneland, as well as his home base of Santa Anita.

He is a thoroughly admirable colt who gives his all every time, but at the moment he appears to be a cut below the best of this division. And though he rallies from behind, which might suggest the Derby distance will suit him, he often seems to idle at the end of races, most notably in the Louisiana Derby, in which I thought he was a winner a furlong out. That style often is the sign of a horse who prefers a two-turn mile, with a fast pace he can run into, but who loses his punch trying nine furlongs and beyond. Regardless, he’s a solid, throwback kind of horse, who with 10 starts will be the most-experienced horse in this Derby field. He runs well on turf, dirt and off tracks, and continues to hold his form.

In this race, My Boy Jack lacked speed away from the gate and then was shrewdly angled by Kent Desormeaux to get to the rail before the first turn. He remained well back down the backstretch, was taken to about the three path entering the far turn and began to rally, was angled to about the four path with about a quarter-mile remaining to go around a wall of horses, was under an aggressive ride through much of the stretch to try and get to TELEKINESIS and got up in the closing strides.

Telekinesis, who was second, broke well and then settled just behind early leader GREYVITOS while hugging the rail, moved up inside of Greyvitos while under a snug hold heading to the far turn, sat second until nearing the head of the stretch, got through along the inside and seized the lead with a furlong to go, then was nailed by My Boy Jack late while drifting slightly to his right. It would be hard to have a better trip.

PONY UP, who was third, had no early speed and was well back after only a quarter-mile, made some progress down the backstretch inside of My Boy Jack, was outfooted early on the far turn, was taken to the four path coming off the bend, and made good progress late while no threat to the top two.

Greyvitos, who finished fourth, was sent along to make the lead, was kept off the rail while rolling along on the front end, got some separation from his rivals less than three furlongs out, was engulfed by Telekinesis to his inside and My Boy Jack to his outside entering the stretch, then emptied out in the final sixteenth. This was his first start since December. If he gets enough time to recover from the effort, he can return to his best form.

SEVEN TRUMPETS, who was fifth, angled off the inside into the first turn and bumped with HONOR UP to secure a good position in the clear, not far off the leaders. He moved up on the heels of Telekinesis down the backstretch, was taken to the three path early on the far turn and was asked for his all, couldn’t go with My Boy Jack coming off the bend, was a bit late to change leads, and was losing ground in the closing yards. He’s far better suited around one turn.

ZANESVILLE, who was sixth, checked in the opening strides, then was guided to the rail to save ground while towards the rear of the field. He started to be ridden along with a half-mile to go, made no progress despite being reminded of the urgency of the situation, hugged the rail around the turn and into the lane, and passed tired rivals.

Honor Up, who was seventh, was bumped going into the first turn by Seven Trumpets and wound up in the three path around that turn, ran with his head up around the turn, raced in the clear down the backstretch and then was cleverly guided to the rail three furlongs out, was right on the hip of Telekinesis with about a quarter-mile to go, but then Jose Ortiz Jr. wrapped up on him and let him come home under his own power, and he was pulled him up quickly as the race ended. Hopefully he’s OK.

NAVY ARMED GUARD, who was eighth, was forwardly placed in the three to four path around the first turn, remained parked wide to the far turn, came under a ride three furlongs out, but had no response and quickly dropped back.

GRACIDA, who was ninth, went into the first turn just behind and just outside of Greyvitos, stayed in that spot to the far turn, then weakened quickly while going around the turn and was pretty much being eased by the time he reached the finish.

ARCHED FEATHER, who finished last of 10, was three to four paths wide around the first turn while well back and racing in the clear, was badly outrun down the backstretch, and was last the rest of the way while way overmatched.