Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby: Springboard Mile analysis
Listed, $401,200 Springboard Mile, one mile, Remington Park, Dec. 17, 2021
(10 Derby qualifying points for first, 4 for second, 0 for third, 0 for fourth)
Winner: Make It Big, by Neolithic
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Red Oak Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 84
MAKE IT BIG remained unbeaten, successfully stretched out around two turns, and made the leap from statebred company in Florida to open company with this victory against what looks like a field that’s a significant cut below the best of the division right now.
Only seven went to the post following two scratches, and only the top two received points towards the Derby, as both the third- and fourth-place finishers raced with Lasix, which disqualifies them from earning points in this race based on rules enacted by Churchill Downs. The two who forfeited points – CONCEPT and CLASSIC MOMENT - are both trained by Steve Asmussen, who’s the sharpest person I’ve come across when it comes to evaluating talent, so that’s a window into where he thinks those horses fit, and offers insight into the overall quality of this field.
Make It Big will no doubt get a chance to prove he can act in better company this winter in Florida, but his being slotted here looks like a clever move to get some open black type and pick up a hearty ($240,000) check.
In this race, Make It Big broke a half-step slow but settled into an ideal spot around the first turn, tucked in, saving ground, just behind the leaders. He was angled off the rail turning into the backstretch and had to wait while in traffic, got a clear run heading to the far turn and moved after the leaders in the four path, was asked for his best coming off the bend, and was able to gradually get the best of runner-up OSBOURNE coming to the wire.
Osbourne, who finished second, raced mid-pack while three to four paths wide into the first turn, then aggressively moved towards the leaders when he got rank and knifed between rivals. He settled better down the backstretch and stalked the leaders, banked into the far turn in the three path, led narrowly in upper stretch, was late to change leads, stayed with Make It Big for much of the stretch, but weakened in the late going. As with the winner, this was his third start and first around two turns. He’ll get his chance to prove he can step up and face the big boys at Oaklawn this winter, but, like the winner, he will have to improve to be a serious Derby contender.
Concept, who was third, broke well from his inside draw and led early, dropped back slightly entering the backstretch, then engaged anew to move toward the front while still inside. He was innermost of a four-ply battle for the lead with three furlongs to go, tried to hang with the top two passing the quarter pole, but began to tire with a furlong remaining. He needs easier and shorter, and his connections will no doubt spot him appropriately.
Classic Moment, who was fourth, raced just behind and outside stablemate Concept around the first turn, advanced when BYE BYE BOBBY came up aggressively outside him six furlongs out, began to falter approaching the far turn, dropped back to last a quarter-mile out, then passed exhausted rivals through the lane.
ROWDY RASCAL, who was fifth, broke sharply and pressed the pace from the three path entering the first turn, had Bye Bye Bobby rush up inside him midway on that turn – pushing him to the four path – then dropped back farther still down the backstretch. He made a very mild rally on the far turn while being ridden along aggressively, but had nothing for the stretch drive and readily surrendered fourth place and barely held fifth.
REVENIR, who was sixth, trailed early while in the three path while appearing uncomfortable with the kickback, was well back throughout, saved ground on the far turn, but never was a factor.
Bye Bye Bobby, who finished last of seven, broke slowly, checked, and was last in the first few strides, then became uncontrollable moving around the first turn and rushed toward the lead while three paths wide. He led narrowly turning into the backstretch and then down the backstretch, was two paths wide as part of a four-horse battle for the lead three furlongs out, began to tire well before the quarter pole, had trouble changing leads in upper stretch, and continued to fade.