Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Withers Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $250,000 Withers, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, Feb. 1, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Max Player, by Honor Code
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Owner: George Hall
Beyer Speed Figure: 86

After being sent to Parx for his first two starts, MAX PLAYER remained in New York for his stakes debut and stepped up with a career-best figure in his first try going nine furlongs. In his favor are that he has improved his figs in all his starts to date, and he acts like he’ll run as far as they write races. Bring back the two-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup! Points of concern are that his figs are still well below the best of this division, and this race looked like a staggerfest coming through the lane, perhaps in part due to Aqueduct’s track being deep and tiring. But the variant of Beyer figs adjusts for that, and the number still came back below average.

In this race, Max Player appeared to resent kickback heading into the first turn and was guided about three paths wide to avoid the spray while sixth in the field of eight. He remained outside the rest of the way. He was four paths wide on the far turn, and with three eighths to go was being asked aggressively but didn’t seem to be going anywhere. But he continued to plug away, got the best of his rivals in upper stretch, and drew clear late.

SHOTSKI, who was second, broke a half-step slow but then moved between rivals to vie for the lead around the first turn. He poked his head in front turning into the backstretch, with VANZZY just outside him. He led to the far turn, was shoved along midway on the turn after disposing of Vanzzy to fend off NEW COMMISSION, repelled a fresh challenge from MONDAY MORNING QB a furlong out, but couldn’t hold safe the winner and just did hang on for the place. He was courageous to turn back several challengers, but that must be judged within the context of the race. An 82 Beyer, his fig this day, is well below what will be needed going forward.

PORTOS, who finished third, has no early speed and trailed early while in the two to three path around the first turn. He trailed down the backstretch, was sent along three furlongs out and initially made little impact, was guided about four to five paths wide coming off the bend, needed some coaxing from Jose Lezcano to finally change leads, then finished steadily. He closed well on Shotski and Morning Morning Qb late, but didn’t seem to cut into his deficit vis-à-vis Max Player in the final furlong. The fact trainer Todd Pletcher has him in New York instead of with his main string at Palm Beach Downs is a tell.

Monday Morning Qb, who was fourth, was coming out of sprints in which he was on or near the lead and figured to be close early in this race – if not lead early – but he broke poorly to start an eventful journey. He was only in front of the plodding Portos into the first turn, advanced down the backstretch to run right into a traffic jam, then was stuck behind horses and inside of Max Player three furlongs out. He got first run on Max Player midway on the far turn and took aim on the leaders from the three path coming off the bend, never switched leads while drifting in, and understandably tired in the closing yards from his adventure. This race is a throw-out. He deserves another chance, with the caveat that big trips in low-fig races are often traps.

New Commission, who was fifth, broke sharply and was even with PRINCE OF PHAROAHS in the early going, then eased back inside that one around the first turn to settle into fourth behind three dueling leaders. He was angled outside rivals entering the backstretch to take up a stalking position, vied for the lead three paths wide on the far turn, was turned back by Shotski entering the lane, and simply wasn’t good enough through the stretch.

Prince of Pharoahs, who was sixth, was sent along to vie for the early lead, crossed over to the rail, and was on the inside a three-way duel for the lead a quarter-mile into the race. He eased back a bit entering the backstretch to follow Shotski, began to lose ground midway on the far turn, and continued to steadily drop back the rest of the way.

MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE, officially seventh, checked inside of New Commission entering the first turn, was midpack while saving ground down the backstretch, began to be badly outrun about three furlongs out, was well back entering the lane, and was eased, though he did cross the finish.

Vanzzy, officially last of eight, was three paths wide around the first turn while battling for the lead, was just outside Shotski for much of the backstretch and into the far turn, but weakened suddenly nearing the quarter pole. He was quickly put into a protective hold by Junior Alvarado, who eased him through the lane and pulled him up before the finish. According to the official chart, he walked off the track under his own power.