Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Holy Bull Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream, Feb. 1, 2020
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Tiz the Law, by Constitution
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Owner: Sackatoga Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 100

Now that was more like it. After a disappointing performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club to end his 2-year-old campaign, TIZ THE LAW looked like the colt who dazzled in the Champagne with this victory. Winning emphatically in his 3-year-old debut while earning the strongest Beyer figure of his career bodes well for him.

My only concern with him right now is that he might have an Achilles heel, and that’s racing inside. He didn’t run up to par in the Kentucky Jockey Club while stuck inside, though the off track might have hindered him, too. In this race, he clearly was far more comfortable when he got outside midway through the race. His best race at 2, the Champagne, came via an outside, stalking trip.

If Tiz the Law can progress to be as effective sitting behind horses as he is when he stalks from the clear, he should be at or near the top of the Derby rankings come May 2. It was exciting to see him come back to his top form, and then some, in this race.

Tiz the Law broke sharply and led into the first turn while being kept a couple of lanes off the rail. He was guided to the rail and then wrangled back as ETE INDIEN took over as the field went around the first turn. For a moment, it looked like he was going to end up in the same spot as in the Kentucky Jockey Club, as both RELENTLESS DANCER and CLEAR DESTINATION ranged up outside him. But Franco grabbed him to drop back further and then got outside those three rivals, and at that point Tiz the Law seemed to come to hand and settle. Franco appeared to have a ton of horse under him heading into the far turn, and Tiz the Law quickly advanced in the three path to engage Ete Indien while leaving the others well back. He got to the front with three-sixteenths to go, put away Ete Indien, and was strong through the wire.

Ete Indien, who finished second, ran what would have been a winning race in most editions of the Holy Bull. He was 11 1/2 lengths clear of third-place TOLEDO while earning a Beyer figure of 95, superior to the figs earned by the winners of the Withers and Robert Lewis the same day. He broke slightly to his right leaving the gate but was quickly on the attack while three paths wide and took the lead as Tiz the Law was rated. He led down the backstretch while hounded by Relentless Dancer, put away that rival entering the far turn and was immediately taken on by Tiz the Law, was no match for the winner through the lane but ran well in his own right in only his second try on dirt.

Toledo, who was third, used his rail draw to save ground around the first turn while following Tiz the Law. He remained inside to the far turn, was angled to the three path to try and rally on the far turn, but was outrun by the top two the rest of the way. He finished evenly while never in danger of finishing anywhere other than third. In four starts, his career best is an 82. He’s a cut below right now.

There wasn’t a lot of depth to this field.

Relentless Dancer, who was fourth, was bumped at the start, entered the first turn about five paths wide but was able to drop down to about the three path around the turn while stalking Ete Indien, began to falter when Tiz the Law rushed past him early on the far turn, and was no factor thereafter. He needs shorter distance and softer company.

MAYBERRY DEPUTY, who was fifth, has no early speed and dropped over from his outside stall to about the two path while trailing around the first turn. He was well back throughout and merely passed a couple of tired rivals while making no impact.

UNCORK THE BOTTLE, who was sixth, was taken in hand the first part of the race and was angled to about the three path around the first turn while toward the rear of the field. He raced outside Toledo for much of the backstretch, was shoved along early on the far turn but got carried out to the four path, and was spent before reaching the top of the lane.

Clear Destination, who finished last of seven, was bumped at the start, was in the three path behind rivals entering the first turn and had to check slightly, then raced between Tiz the Law and Relentless Dancer entering the backstretch. He drafted in behind Ete Indien after Tiz the Law was angled outside rivals, was sent along urgently with a little less than three furlongs to go but dropped back quickly coming to the top of the stretch and was pretty much eased through the lane.