Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: Breeders' Futurity analysis

Grade 1, $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity, 1 1/16 miles, Keeneland, Oct. 5, 2019

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Maxfield, by Street Sense
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Godolphin LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 86

MAXFIELD followed up a maiden win on debut on Sept. 14 in a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs with this powerful victory, quite the feat considering it was only his second start, his first around two turns, and he was coming back in just three weeks. That’s a lot for a young horse, but he handled it all, crushing his nine rivals.

The one quibble at this point is that he needs to leave the gate better, and hopefully that’ll be something that comes around with experience. But in his case, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish, and in that regard, he’s doing just fine.

In this race, Maxfield, as in his debut, was slow away from the gate, then trailed into the first turn while saving ground. As the field neared the far turn, he started to gain ground and was angled out by Ortiz, and on the far turn he roared past his rivals with an electrifying turn of foot while in the four to five path, going from ninth to first in about a quarter-mile. He took the lead with authority heading into the lane and drew clear. It’s unusual – and quite exciting – to see a young horse make an extended run like that and keep going. He’s by a Derby winner out of mare who’s by a Preakness winner (Bernardini), so he’s got the pedigree for the classics.

GOUVERNEUR MORRIS, who finished second, had romped in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint on a sloppy track at Saratoga in his lone prior start, so he, too, was trying two turns for the first time and acquitted himself well. He broke from the outside stall and was caught three to four paths wide around the first turn, seemed to come off the bit down the backstretch, but then re-engaged while under urging heading into the far turn and moved sharply in the four path to advance to the lead before reaching the quarter pole. He couldn’t stay with Maxfield in upper stretch and was no match down the lane, but bravely held off ENFORCEABLE for second despite the wide trip. Not sure why he ran in spots – perhaps he needs blinkers – but he’s obviously got talent, too.

Enforceable, who was third, lacked early speed and saved ground toward the rear of the pack around the first turn. He inched closer heading into the far turn while being angled to the middle of the track and followed Gouverneur Morris around the far turn in the four path, but had the winner rush right past him near the quarter pole. He couldn’t get past Gouverneur Morris through the lane, but was well clear of everyone else.

AJAAWEED, who was fourth, raced near the back of the pack while between horses in the two path around the first turn. He had Maxfield run past him early on the far turn, was under an aggressive ride while four to five paths wide on the far turn, and just plugged away one-paced.

BY YOUR SIDE, who was fifth, was forwardly placed heading into the first turn while just behind the leaders, had to check slightly when TAP IT TO WIN ducked out early on the first turn, then continued to race between rivals while just behind the leaders down the backstretch. He lacked a sufficient response when asked three furlongs out and never was a factor thereafter, looking like a horse who needs a freshening or shorter distance or both.

AMERICAN BUTTERFLY, who finished sixth, went into the first turn three paths wide and then advanced to the lead before entering the backstretch and got over to the rail. He was quite keen down the backstretch, led until nearing the quarter pole, was unable to match strides when challenged, and steadily faded.

JANUARY WON, who was seventh, raced near the rear of the pack while three paths wide around the first turn, dropped back to last and started to lose contact with the field down the backstretch, then passed tired rivals while never a factor.

KING THEO, who was eighth, hugged the rail while just behind the early leaders around the first turn, was just behind American Butterfly heading into the far turn, but retreated, failing to take advantage of a gorgeous trip. He’s by More Than Ready, so perhaps grass is in his future.

LIFE ON THE ROAD, who was ninth, broke sharply and attended the early pace, went into the far turn in the three path while just inside Gouverneur Morris, was asked to keep up, couldn’t do so, and was done before reaching the quarter pole. This was an ambitious spot for a colt coming off a debut win in which he got a Beyer Speed Figure of 45 at Ellis Park.

Tap It to Win, who was last of 10, was a huge disappointment, being as he was coming off a highly rated maiden win at Saratoga. He used his inside draw to establish a forward position heading into the first turn, but then tossed his head about and tried to lug out briefly, after which he appeared difficult to handle, fighting his rider until he was able to get outside of American Butterfly. He came under an aggressive ride midway on the far turn when Gouverneur Morris ranged up outside him, then quickly retreated before reaching the top of the lane and was ridden sympathetically the rest of the way.