Road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby: American Pharoah Stakes analysis

Grade 1, $301,404 American Pharoah Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, Sept. 27, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Eight Rings, by Empire Maker
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D. Fielding, and Golconda Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 87

This race frequently has had an impact on both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and it’s even more significant this year for the Juvenile since that race will be held over the same track and distance as the American Pharoah.

EIGHT RINGS rebounded from a disastrous Del Mar Futurity, in which he veered sharply toward the inner rail not long after the start and dropped his rider. He added blinkers for this race and was sent away aggressively from the gate by jockey John Velazquez to “put run on his mind,” according to Baffert. Eight Rings still goofed off – his ears were up as though he was waiting for competition and he swapped leads in the stretch – but he had so much more natural ability than his rivals here that he still won by a comfortable six lengths. If he can improve his focus, he should be even better.

In this race, Eight Rings was in front by more than one length coming under the wire the first time, led narrowly for much of the first turn, then began to open up entering the backstretch. He maintained the advantage into the far turn while not being asked one bit, widened his lead in upper stretch, got hit once right-handed by Velazquez inside the furlong ground, then a second time near the sixteenth pole, at which point he swapped leads. Velazquez then hand rode him to the wire. He toyed with this bunch. The one caveat is that the track was very kind to front-runners the first two days of the meet, which just added to his advantage.

AMERICAN THEOREM, who finished second, ran a terrific race. He only had one prior start, a maiden win going 5 1/2 furlongs, but he hung in there bravely and though no match for the winner was well in front of everyone else. He bobbled slightly leaving the gate but used his speed to be second, just inside and behind Eight Rings, entering the first turn. He was wrestled back entering the backstretch to get outside of Eight Rings, tracked the eventual winner to the far turn, then was asked to go after Eight Rings with three furlongs to go. He couldn’t keep up, but kept to his task through the lane in a promising two-turn debut and second start.

STORM THE COURT, who was third, like Eight Rings was coming off a Del Mar Futurity start in which he lost the rider. He went into the first turn about three to four paths wide while just behind the leaders and between rivals. He was just behind and outside American Theorem with a half-mile to go, didn’t have an immediate response when EXPRESS TRAIN came up inside him with three furlongs to go, went around the far turn in the three path, then kept plugging away to get up for third. Although he won sprinting first time out he’s kind of a grinding type who should benefit from more distance.

Express Train, who was fourth, got bumped by Eight Rings leaving the gate, then followed Eight Rings around the first turn while saving ground toward the rear of a bunched group. He lost some position entering the backstretch, but going to the far turn split rivals and moved menacingly into third. But he came under a heavy ride before reaching the quarter pole, then flattened out and lost third to Storm the Court, whom he had passed at the three-furlong mark. He was, for me, the most disappointing horse in the race, as his maiden win at Del Mar was very impressive. Maybe the track profile was against him, but I’d have liked to have seen him at least hold on for third.

SHOPLIFTED, who was fifth, ended up about four paths wide toward the back of the pack into the first turn, then had to check in traffic and was last with six furlongs to go. He began an extended run heading into the far turn while saving ground, switched out midway on the turn to avoid traffic but had to go to the four or five path, was right with Storm the Court a furlong out, but lost his punch late. The track profile was against him, he had early trouble, and he made a sneaky mid-race move. This effort was better than it will look on paper.

DEFENSE WINS, who finished sixth, had to check while in traffic entering the first turn and ended up toward the rear of the pack, saved ground for much of the rest of the way, only had to go around stablemate FORE LEFT on the far turn, and never made any impact.

Fore Left, who was seventh, was keen to advance heading into the first turn and sat just off and outside Eight Rings while under a snug hold. He dropped down to the rail midway down the backstretch, stayed inside the rest of the way, was done before reaching the quarter pole, and was sympathetically ridden the final furlong. This was his two-turn debut; he indicated he’ll appreciate a return to sprints.

NUCKY, who was eighth, moved up to press the early pace but wound up about four to five paths wide on the first turn. He raced midpack while just outside Storm the Court down the backstretch, started to drop back while in the four path entering the far turn, then quickly retreated and was understandably not persevered with through the lane. He’ll always have his fluky Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity win as comfort.

COLLUSION ILLUSION, who trailed, got floated to about the five or six path around the first turn after breaking from his outside stall. He came off the bridle midway down the backstretch, failed to respond to urging at that point, dropped back quickly and without putting up any fight, and was eased before reaching the quarter pole and was pulled up at midstretch. He walked off the course. He showed a lot of tenacity in his first two starts at Del Mar, both wins, so obviously something went amiss here.