Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Withers analysis

Grade 3, $252,500 Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, Feb. 2, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Tax, by Arch
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owner: R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Hugh Lynch, and Corms Racing Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 96

TAX is in the black. Claimed for $50,000 last October at Keeneland, he since has finished third in the Remsen and now owns a victory in the Withers, in which he produced a Beyer figure that puts him among the best of the division at this point.

I’m taking a circumspect position toward the race. I don’t doubt that the fig pencils out correctly based on time and track variant, but with three horses clumped together at the wire and with all producing career bests – significantly so in the case of third-place OUR BRAINTRUST – I want to see this subsequently confirmed.

In addition, the Remsen (https://classic.drf.com/news/road-2019-kentucky-derby-remsen-stakes-analysis), from which Tax exited, took a hit when winner Maximus Mischief returned to finish an ugly third in the Holy Bull, run the same day as the Withers. There are too many clouds here and not enough blue sky for me to completely buy in right now.

That said, Tax has certainly improved since moving to Gargan’s barn and being treated with Lasix, which he did not use in his first two starts. And his pedigree is one that indicates more distance will not be a problem.

In this race, Tax stumbled leaving the gate but quickly righted himself and used his inside draw to advantage, hugging the rail around the first turn while under a snug hold. He led until NOT THAT BRADY took over late on that first turn, and though he continued to save ground he got shuffled back near the far turn and dropped back to fourth. He stayed inside into the lane, had to wait briefly in upper stretch, then got through when Not That Brady drifted out. He took the lead, and was all-out to prevail. While the stumble and traffic didn’t help, both were not severe, and were more than compensated by the ground he saved.

Not That Brady, who finished second, didn’t break all that sharply, used his natural speed to rush up into the first turn while four paths wide, and continued his progress to eventually drop over and end up in the two path by the midway point on that turn while taking the lead. He led into the far turn, repelled a bid from Our Braintrust three furlongs out, led into the lane, drifted in slightly, then came out when whipped left-handed and bumped Our Braintrust, then gamely fought on between rivals to the wire. He overcorrects and must be a tricky horse to ride.

Our Braintrust, who was third, broke alertly and then went into the first turn while three paths wide while stalking the early leaders. He got a bit aggressive near the end of that turn and went after Not That Brady, and though he sat off Not That Brady down the backstretch he still appeared too keen. He could not stay with Not That Brady three furlongs out, came after Not That Brady anew in upper stretch, was slightly late to change leads, took a solid bump after switching leads, continued to battle but was outfinished by the top two. I’d like to see him get some cover next time and then make a run. I’m also still unsure as to how far he wants to go, but he certainly ran well in his two-turn debut, something over which I was skeptical going in.

SIR WINSTON, who was fourth, saved ground while last around the first turn, trailed to the far turn, was asked for his best three furlongs out, passed a few tired rivals in the stretch but never was a factor.

ADMIRE, who was fifth, was sent along leaving the gate to be forwardly placed into the first turn, got rank after Not That Brady crossed over in front of him midway on that turn, wound up between rivals while still difficult to handle, was outrun nearing the far turn when Our Braintrust began his rally, saved ground into the lane, angled out to make a run but went evenly through the stretch. He’s a work in progress. Blinkers might be needed to draw out his best.

MORETTI, who was sixth, saved ground while just behind the early leaders into the first turn but then was taken outside rivals toward the end of that turn, was sent along into the far turn to be three wide, just outside Our Braintrust, with a little less than a half-mile to go, began to retreat midway on the turn, was slightly late changing leads coming into the lane, couldn’t go with Admire in upper stretch and weakened. When Todd Pletcher leaves a 3-year-old in New York for the winter instead of taking him with his main string to South Florida – even though the owner is based in New York - that’s a red flag.

LUCKY LEE, who finished last of seven, broke a bit sluggishly, was in front of only Sir Winston around the first turn, commenced a rally about four paths wide around the far turn, but was all-in before the quarter pole and faded in a very disappointing effort.