Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Springboard Mile analysis

Listed, $400,000 Remington Springboard Mile, one mile, Remington Park, Dec. 16, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Long Range Toddy, by Take Charge Indy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Richard Eramia
Owner: Willis Horton Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 82

This was the last of the Derby prep races run in the calendar year 2018 and featured a mix of horses who had raced at Remington, Churchill Downs, and Belmont Park in their most-recent starts. None of these horses is currently ranked as top-flight prospects for the Derby, but if the race were run at Remington, LONG RANGE TODDY wouldn’t mind, as this was his third straight victory at the track, all with ascending Beyer Speed Figures.

Long Range Toddy broke well and took up a forward position while three paths wide around the first turn, then was allowed to settle just behind the leaders. Under patient handling by Eramia, he slipped to the rail three furlongs out as some rivals made premature moves, had to wait in traffic nearing the quarter pole, was able to get out and pounce on the leaders while four paths wide, but just did last over stablemate BANKIT. Overall, he had a very good trip.

Bankit, who was second, broke a half-step slow, then was guided to the rail heading into the first turn to save ground. He trailed the well-bunched field with three furlongs to go, saved ground into the lane, split horses in upper stretch, angled out midway through the lane – bothering several rivals – and finished best of all to just miss while appearing as the one from this race with the most upside. There was an inquiry into the path he took through the lane, but no change was made. This was probably the right call, as the horses he bothered were beaten, but it was a dangerous move and a penalty for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. would not be out of line.

DUNPH, who finished third, raced four to five paths wide around the first turn while forwardly placed, never could get over and went into the far turn in the three path while vying for the lead, had his rider look back midway on the turn – don’t worry, they’re there – led narrowly into the lane but couldn’t go with the top two in the final furlong.

TONE BROKE, who was fourth, lacked speed and raced between rivals toward the rear of the pack around the first turn. He advanced in about the five path initially on the far turn but had to check and then was angled to about the three path, was behind a wall of horses entering the lane, swung out anew and made steady progress late.

MARQUEE PRINCE, who was fifth, had good speed leaving the gate, went into the first turn in the two path, emerged with a narrow lead, and then settled into second for the run-up the backstretch. He advanced along the rail to vie for the lead three furlongs out, but tired through the lane.

EPIC DREAMER, who was sixth, saved ground from his rail draw and settled into a good spot just behind the leaders a quarter-mile into the race. He was angled off the rail going down the backside and went into the far turn in the three path, just outside Long Range Toddy. He couldn’t keep up with Long Range Toddy coming off the bend, was a bit late to change leads, then had to take up sharply to avoid clipping heels when Bankit came out in front of him.

D TOZ, who finished seventh, lacked speed and couldn’t get over from his outside draw, so he wound up four wide while near the rear of the field around the first turn. He advanced while caught six paths wide around the far turn, was in contention in upper stretch, but failed to change leads and then tired late from his wide journey. This actually was a courageous effort for this Oklahoma-bred, who should be extremely tough if spotted with his friends next time.

KAZIRANGA, who was eighth, saved ground while midpack around the first turn and then had to tap on the brakes midway on that turn. He saved ground to the far turn, got shuffled back in traffic three furlongs out, got through inside, but couldn’t sustain a rally.

DOBBINS G, who was ninth, challenged for the lead from the four path around the first turn, took the lead into the backstretch, led to the far turn, was engulfed from both sides three furlongs out, began to weaken in upper stretch and dropped back while switching over to his wrong lead at midstretch.

TOBACCO ROAD, who was 10th, raced about three paths wide while behind the early leaders around the first turn, checked in traffic a quarter-mile into the race, was caught five paths wide while trying to rally on the far turn, then tired through the stretch.

SIX SHOOTER, who finished last of 11, had an adventurous trip. He raced in the two path while just behind the leaders around the first turn, had to check and lost position about a quarter-mile into the race, made a premature, extended run going into the far turn to wind up four paths wide, was urged aggressively a quarter-mile out, and was a beaten horse at midstretch when he had to check to avoid the chain-reaction problems caused by Bankit. He is worth following for when he cuts back to a sprint.