Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Smarty Jones analysis

Listed, $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn Park, Jan. 25, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Gray Attempt, by Graydar
Trainer: Jinks Fires
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Owner: Dwight Pruett
Beyer Speed Figure: 84

On opening day of Oaklawn’s meeting, its terrific Derby prep program began with this stake. GRAY ATTEMPT, who had sprinted in his three prior races, successfully stretched out around two turns, but the soft Beyer figure and moderate competition would indicate he’ll need to step up his game over the next few months, especially when newcomers ship in for races such as the Rebel and Arkansas Derby. He has plenty of early gas. I’m not sure how far he wants to run. He can get a mile. That we know. The rest don’t look like a whole lot at this point.

In this race, Gray Attempt, starting from the outside post in a field of eight, used his natural speed to make the top into the first turn while pulling hard through decent fractions (:23.12, :46.86). He led to the far turn, when pressure was applied by BOLDOR and FORLOVEOFCOUNTRY. He turned back those two, then faced a fresh attack from LONG RANGE TODDY and gamely held him off in the final furlong. The first five finishers were separated by 2 1/4 lengths, which usually indicates a low rating.

Long Range Toddy, who finished second, saved ground while just behind Gray Attempt around the first turn, stayed in that spot to the far turn, was patiently handled when Bolder and Forloveofcountry made their bids, got through inside while under urging at the top of the stretch, but couldn’t get past the winner. No excuse, second-best

Boldor, who was third, went into the first turn in the three path while just behind Gray Attempt, went after Gray Attempt on the far turn but could never get past him, lost ground into the lane, but kept to his task and was gaining incrementally on the winner in the closing yards.

SIX SHOOTER, who was fourth, raced between Long Range Toddy and Bolder while just behind Gray Attempt around the first turn, lost position despite being urged turning into the backstretch, was asked aggressively with three furlongs to go and didn’t make much headway initially, angled out and kept plugging away to make up some ground late. Watch for him on the turn-back. I think he’s best as a late-running sprinter.

SLEEPY EYES TODD, who was fifth, hesitated and was off a step slow, stayed inside and followed Long Range Toddy around the first turn, was outrun heading into the far turn and dropped back to last, saved ground into the lane and rallied anew.

BANKIT, who was sixth, went into the first turn about four paths wide but then was angled closer to the rail while toward the rear of the field, was last down the backstretch, attempted a rally while in the three path on the far turn, angled to the five path coming off the bend, but made no impact through the lane.

SUPER STEED, who was seventh, lacked early speed, checked off heels into the first turn and dropped back to last, saved ground inside Bankit around the first turn, moved in tandem with Bankit heading into the far turn, but never threatened.

Forloveofcountry, who finished last of eight, raced just outside Sleepy Eyes Todd while in the three path around the first turn, moved to the middle of the track down the backstretch and moved closer to the leaders, was urged aggressively three furlongs out while just outside of Boldor, but was done before the quarter pole, failed to change leads through the lane, and was allowed to coast home late by a merciful Joe Bravo.