Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Sham Stakes Analysis

Grade 3, $100,702 Sham Stakes, one mile, Santa Anita, Jan. 5, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Gunmetal Gray, by Exchange Rate
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Hollendorfer, Pearl Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds
Beyer Speed Figure: 82

GUNMETAL GRAY took advantage of some class relief and a favorable pace scenario to get his first graded stakes win. He had finished second to certain divisional champ Game Winner in the FrontRunner, and fifth behind Game Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in his two previous starts. There was nothing of that caliber in this race. The only horse who appeared to have that kind of potential was the quirky COLISEUM, whose inexperience betrayed him.

Gunmetal Gray had made four prior starts, and that experience proved valuable. He was last in the seven-horse field early on, and finished best in a race whose shape flattered him, as it was fast early (:46.95 opening half), and slow late (:52.01 second half). Gunmetal Gray’s Beyer Speed Figure was nothing to get excited about. He will need to get better, and down the line he’ll need to show he can step up and compete favorably with Game Winner. This was a good spot for him at the moment. We’ll see how he progresses.

In this race, Gunmetal Gray lacked speed and saved ground around the first turn while racing in the clear, remained well back of his six rivals with three furlongs to go, was gradually angled toward the middle of the track heading into the lane, and responded to left-handed encouragement by Smith to get up in time.

SUENO, who was second, bobbled leaving the gate, saved ground into the first turn and then was gradually angled to the three path around that turn while a bit keen, settled better down the backstretch, was three wide on the far turn while just behind the leaders – with his rider looking back and to his inside – drifted out slightly coming off the final bend, didn’t seem to be making much impact on MUCH BETTER a furlong out, seized the lead when Much Better went to wandering about, but could not hold off the winner and swapped back to his wrong lead when crossing the tire tracks left by the starting gate nearing the wire.

Much Better, who finished third, used his outside post to move into an ideal stalking position behind SAVAGERY around the first turn, although he was a bit too keen at that point. He was right on Savagery’s hip halfway through the race, took the lead midway around the far turn when Savagery faded, had a clear lead at midstretch and appeared headed to victory, but swapped to his wrong lead at midstretch while racing erratically and was caught by the top two. He ran like a horse who needs to be covered up until as late as possible.

GRAY MAGICIAN, who was fourth, saved ground around the first turn inside of Much Better, hugged the rail down the backstretch and into the far turn, only had to come around Savagery, took a bit longer than he should have to change leads in upper stretch, then went one-paced to the wire.

EASY SHOT, who was fifth, raced between rivals while about four paths wide around the first turn while toward the rear of the pack, angled toward the rail down the backstretch and went into the far turn just outside of Gray Magician, had to suck out of a spot midway on the far turn when he couldn’t keep up, re-engaged and was making a decent late run, but had to check in deep stretch behind the erratic Much Better and lost fourth place late. It wouldn’t have been inappropriate to take down Much Better for this incident, but there was no inquiry.

Coliseum, who was sixth, broke poorly, got rank and rushed up into the first turn to wind up about five paths wide, continued to pull hard entering the backstretch, settled better midway through the race, was four paths wide on the far turn, was urged along prior to the quarter pole, but never really engaged through the lane. He had run one time previously, and though he broke well that day, he had a habit of not breaking well in some of his gate works prior to his debut. He fell back on old, bad habits here. He needs to mature mentally.

Savagery, who finished last of seven, was sent aggressively away from the gate to take the lead, held a clear advantage into the backstretch with the rider repeatedly looking back, was challenged by Much Better heading into the far turn, was urged along with three furlongs to go but had nothing and faltered, then was ridden sympathetically through the final furlong.