Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Santa Anita Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita, April 6, 2019
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)
Winner: Roadster, by Quality Road
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 98

ROADSTER was all the rage before he ever ran last summer, and now he’s showing why. This was only his second start following a lengthy layoff owing to throat surgery, yet he was able to run down highly regarded stablemate GAME WINNER to post the fastest Beyer of his career.

This was the ninth Santa Anita Derby victory for Baffert in the last 24 editions, and his third in the last five years. Both these colts should be live on Kentucky Derby Day, especially after getting legged up over this deep, tiring, but safe surface. Baffert has repeatedly shown that he knows exactly how to bring horses up to the Derby and have them peak on the first Saturday in May. He’s also won the Derby with Santa Anita Derby runners-up (Silver Charm, Real Quiet), so I’d expect Game Winner to be set for his best, too. This is a formidable duo.

In this race, Roadster saved ground around the first turn while following the pacesetting INSTAGRAND, then dropped back late on the backstretch as the four rivals in front of him battled it out during a 24.36-second third quarter-mile, which was the second-fastest portion of the race. Smith then gave Roadster his cue, and he gained quickly on his rivals, who likely were softened up from their midrace duel. He came into the lane in the 4 path, collared Game Winner nearing the sixteenth pole and inched away late. Patience – both after the surgery and in this race – was rewarded.

Game Winner, who finished second, came away from the gate on his wrong lead and went into the first turn four paths wide. He stayed outside and then was sent along nearing the far turn to go up and battle for the lead during that quick third quarter-mile. He initially was in the 4 path on the far turn, then cleared SYNTHESIS to come into the stretch in the 3 path, outside Instagrand and NOLO CONTESTO. He took a long time to get past a stubborn Instagrand, then could not hold off Roadster while wanting to lug in though the final furlong, but he galloped out better than anyone. He is a relentless competitor, but he’s got to learn to run straight. He was coming back on just three weeks’ rest following a trip to Oaklawn for his 2019 debut, was wide throughout, and made a big, midrace move. He should move forward a bunch in four weeks.

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Instagrand, who was third, used his sharp speed to take the lead and got over to the rail by the first turn. He continued to lead down the backstretch and around the far turn, put away Nolo Contesto heading into the lane, fought back bravely when immediately challenged by Game Winner, and only yielded in the final sixteenth. This was his first try around two turns and likely was at a distance a bit beyond his optimum right now. I’d love to see him turn back to seven furlongs for the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day and then shoot for something like the Haskell or the Allen Jerkens.

Nolo Contesto, who was fourth, checked slightly off the heels of Instagrand soon after the start and then ranged up outside Instagrand into the first turn. He stayed on Instagrand’s hip down the backstretch, then was sent along when heading around the far turn as Synthesis and Game Winner ranged up outside him. He was urged aggressively midway on the turn to hold his position, was with Instagrand a quarter-mile out, but couldn’t stay with Instagrand and Game Winner in upper stretch and gradually tired.

Synthesis, who was fifth, went into the first turn in the 3 path, outside Instagrand and Nolo Contesto while inside Game Winner. He stayed in that position down the backstretch, then was hustled along with more than a half-mile remaining. He was three paths wide on the far turn while being asked aggressively, began to yield midway on the turn and faded through the lane.

MORE ICE, who finished last of six, went into the first turn just outside Roadster, was last while in traffic entering the backstretch, was sent along about a half-mile out while outside Roadster, but was done soon thereafter and dropped well back while overmatched.