Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Sam F. Davis analysis

Grade 3, $250,000 Sam Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, Feb. 9, 2019

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Well Defined, by With Distinction
Trainer: Kathleen O’Connell
Jockey: Pablo Morales
Owner: Stonehedge LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 93

When WELL DEFINED is able to make the lead, he gets awfully brave. When he doesn’t, he often chucks it. He was able to shine in this spot by making a clear lead and rolling along to an easy victory, similar to how he pulverized rivals in the In Reality Stakes, part of the Florida Stallion Series, at Gulfstream last September.

The In Reality was his final prep before facing the division’s best in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He faded badly in the Breeders’ Cup after dueling with Complexity. He seems rather easy to peg right now. He’s obviously got talent, but to this point he has needed to have things to his way. The level of competition is only going to get better, and the potential pace more challenging, as he heads deeper into the Derby prep season.

That said, this was his first race with blinkers, and his first race with Morales, and he earned a career-best figure, all points in his favor. But more distance combined with more pace could be a bad exacta for him.

In this race, Well Defined used his natural speed to immediately take the lead and open a daylight advantage before a quarter-mile had been run. He maintained a two-length margin to the far turn, was asked for his best less than three furlongs out when KNICKS GO got closer, opened a commanding lead coming off the bend, was under an energetic ride through the lane but never was threatened in the final furlong.

KENTUCKY WILDCAT, who was second, broke a half-step slow, settled near the rear of the pack while three to four paths wide on the first turn, advanced while fanned about five paths wide for much of the far turn, looped enough rivals to come into the lane in the three path, couldn’t cut into the leader’s margin but finished well clear of everyone else. It was a good effort, but, unfortunately, he suffered a condylar fracture, per reporting from colleague Marty McGee, so he’s off the Derby trail.

SO ALIVE, who finished third, lacked early speed and trailed while far back early, trailed until nearing the top of the lane, was fanned widest of all into the stretch, and finished steadily but never was in the hunt at any point while passing tired rivals.

COUNTER OFFER, who was fourth, saved ground from his inside draw and was only in front of So Alive into the first turn, rallied about three to four paths wide on the far turn, was fanned to about the five path into the lane, never was a factor and just did touch out Knicks Go.

Knicks Go, who was fifth, was hustled away from the gate and settled into second into the first turn as Well Defined sprinted clear, was angled off the inside to take up a position just behind and outside Well Defined midway on that turn, stayed there to the far turn, could not keep up with the winner midway on the far turn, and steadily tired. Perhaps his giant effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile took a lot out of him, because he hasn’t been the same since that race.

FIVE STAR GENERAL, who was sixth, broke well and then checked slightly heading into the first turn, was under restraint while three paths wide on the first turn, was caught four paths wide into the far turn, began to retreat midway on that turn, checked nearing the quarter pole, dropped down to the rail but couldn’t make an impact. He had been on or near the lead in his two previous races, both wins. I don’t blame his connections for experimenting with rating him at this stage. It just didn’t work. Now they know.

STILL DREAMING, who was seventh, was mid-pack in the two path around the first turn while a bit keen, moved aggressively into the far turn to make a bid while three paths wide, was all in midway on the turn, dropped toward the rail and then angled out anew heading into the lane while under severe pressure, but continued his retreat.

MOONSTER, who was eighth, hugged the rail while in the middle of the pack around the first turn, had to be asked hard heading into the far turn to try and hold his position but could not, angled out coming off the bend but was always well back.

GOING FOR GOLD, who finished last of nine, was coming off front-running efforts in sprints and added blinkers but was outrun for the lead, raced third along the inside heading into the backstretch while following the winner, stayed in that spot to the far turn, then tired badly the final quarter-mile.