Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Robert B. Lewis Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $147,351 Robert Lewis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, Feb. 2, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Mucho Gusto, by Mucho Macho Man
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Owner: Michael Lund Petersen
Beyer Speed Figure: 90

MUCHO GUSTO was no match for stablemate Improbable in the CashCall Futurity, but against this softer field, and over a sloppy, sealed track that he clearly adored, he romped to an easy victory.

I’m not sure how much to take out of this race. He still looks no more than the third-best Derby prospect in his barn right now, behind Improbable and 2-year-old champ Game Winner, and this figure, though a career best, won’t cut it against the division’s elite. It also looks like the track moved him up. Baffert related a story post-race about how Mucho Gusto had worked well in the slop at Timonium prior to his being purchased there last May for $625,000.

But Mucho Gusto has now won three times in four starts, and the only horse who has finished in front of him is a colt who is at or near the top of any Derby list at this stage. He finished this race off as though more distance will be within his range, something I wasn’t convinced of following his prior start. And if he gets an off track, look out.

In this race, Mucho Gusto broke alertly from his outside stall in the small field and was content to sit just off two others who were more intent on the lead. He was three wide while just behind the dueling leaders around the first turn, took aim at MAGNIFICENT McCOOL heading into the far turn, went past that rival without being asked, easily turned back a bid from EASY SHOT in upper stretch, kicked clear with authority, and was taken in hand by Talamo nearing the finish.

GUNMETAL GRAY, who was second, bumped with Easy Shot leaving the gate, settled at the back of the field around the first turn, remained well back to the far turn, made steady progress the final three-eighths, just did get past Easy Shot late, but was never close to the winner. He needs a very hot pace to help his rally. He came back from the race with a gash on the back of his left front hoof, but trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said later the cut looked worse than it was, describing it as “very superficial.”

Easy Shot, who was third, bumped with Gunmetal Gray at the start, was hustled a bit into the first turn to be fourth while saving ground, was able to easily avoid KID CANTINA when that rival broke down, was within three lengths of the winner midway on the far turn while being hustled along, took another run at Mucho Gusto nearing the furlong pole but was turned back and paid for it late, getting caught for second in the closing yards.

Magnificent McCool, who finished fourth, vied for the lead on the first turn outside Kid Cantina, took the lead into the backstretch prior to Kid Cantina being injured, breezed along on the lead to the far turn, was asked to go with Mucho Gusto on the far turn but was unable to do so and steadily faded. He’s better on turf, and better with a target.

Kid Cantina, officially last of five, went up inside of Magnificent McCool to duel for the early lead around the first turn, yielded the lead just before turning into the backstretch, then suffered a catastrophic leg injury near the 5 1/2-furlong pole. Stewards reported later he was euthanized.