Road to 2019 Kentucky Derby: Rebel Stakes (division 1) analysis

Grade 2, $750,000 Rebel Stakes (first division), 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park, March 16, 2019
(37.5 Derby qualifying points for a win, 15 for second, 7.5 for third, 3.75 for fourth)

Winner: Long Range Toddy, Take Charge Indy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Jon Court
Owner: Willis Horton Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

Pace makes the race. So, too, do trips. The difference in this division of the Rebel was the trip LONG RANGE TODDY had compared to that of IMPROBABLE, with the winner getting a shrewd ride from Court, who eased out of an early duel to wait and then pounce. Meanwhile, Improbable was caught four paths wide the whole way. The margin was a neck.

That said, there is plenty of reason to think both can go forward, and, as of now, they are scheduled to meet again in the Arkansas Derby on April 13. Long Range Toddy has made consistent progress throughout his career, with his Beyer figures improving every time; this was a career best. Improbable had not run in four months and had a chaotic training schedule, what with having to be relocated to Los Alamitos for his final work owing to the shutdown at Santa Anita before shipping to Oaklawn.

I had been circumspect over the quality of the horses based at Oaklawn this season, but Long Range Toddy certainly stepped up.

In this race, Long Range Toddy broke sharply and led into the first turn while hugging the rail. Court conceded the lead to CLASSY JOHN entering the backstretch, then eased back more when GALILEAN and EXTRA HOPE advanced, too. Long Range Toddy dropped back to fifth when Improbable advanced in the four path three furlongs out, but now he was waiting patiently behind a group of dueling horses who were under various levels of encouragement. He was behind a wall of horses coming into the lane while appearing eager to go, switched out to follow Improbable in upper stretch, then closed best of all to catch Improbable. Bravo, Mr. Court. That’s the kind of ride Pat Day and Eddie Delahoussaye often used successfully in their Hall of Fame careers.

Improbable, who finished second, got away a half-step slow from his outside stall, then was fanned to the four path into the first turn. He was carried to the middle of the track entering the backstretch when Extra Hope moved aggressively, never did drop over, continued his scenic tour of Hot Springs going four wide on the far turn, took the lead entering the stretch, put away Extra Hope and then Galilean but couldn’t quite stave off Long Range Toddy. He lost far more ground than he was beaten.

Galilean, who was third, got away poorly but then rushed up between Classy John and Improbable to head into the first turn three paths wide. He moved with Classy John to the fore entering the backstretch, then got aggressive when Extra Hope came up outside him midway down the backstretch. He raced between rivals on the far turn, dropped over to the rail entering the lane after Classy John retreated, but couldn’t go with the top two late. This was his first start against open company.

Extra Hope, who was fourth, was taken back entering the first turn and was able to save ground behind three dueling leaders while pulling a bit hard. He might have ended up in the ideal spot where Long Range Toddy wound up, but he was taken off the rail entering the backstretch, and once he saw daylight, he moved aggressively for the lead and found himself now dueling with Classy John and Galilean. He was caught three paths wide on the far turn, led narrowly just prior to the quarter pole, couldn’t stay with Improbable in upper stretch but was right alongside Galilean until deep stretch. The early decision to forego his pocket trip did not pan out.

EASY SHOT, who was fifth, was on the rail toward the rear of the field entering the first turn when he tried to lug out, and he continued to be hard to control around that turn. He got closer entering the far turn but was asked early on to advance and made minimal impact. He ranged up outside Long Range Toddy entering the lane, but could not keep up. He’s a cut below these.

NINTH STREET, who was sixth, bumped with Classy John leaving the gate, then got fanned to about the four path early on the first turn when Easy Shot lugged out. He was outside Easy Shot for much of the backstretch, couldn’t go with Easy Shot entering the far turn, was fanned to about the four path coming off the bend but was always well back.

Classy John, who finished last of seven, bumped with Ninth Street leaving the gate but immediately went up to vie for the lead. He took over from Long Range Toddy entering the backstretch, was engaged by Galilean and Extra Hope soon thereafter, led narrowly into the far turn, was pushed along midway on the turn but could not keep pace, then tired badly through the lane.