Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Louisiana Derby analysis

Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, March 23, 2019
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: By My Standards, by Goldencents
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Owner: Allied Racing Stable, LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 97

This race began the final round of Derby preps that offers 100 points for first and 40 for second. As the point values increase, so, too, the importance of stepping up when it matters most, and that’s what BY MY STANDARDS did here, moving from a maiden win on the Risen Star undercard to defeating the top five finishers from the Risen Star while earning a career-best fig.

Calhoun said By My Standards awakened after his maiden win. He finally learned to finish off a race, and his subsequent works coming into the Louisiana Derby were brilliant. There’s still a question over just how good the Fair Grounds regionals were this year, but there’s no question By My Standards has picked the right time to blossom. He will go straight into the Derby off a six-week layoff, Calhoun said.

In this race, By My Standards broke well and then was rated by Saez heading into the first turn, which allowed him to drop over and save ground. He was fourth heading up the backstretch while following LEMNISCATE, then crept closer heading around the far turn. He was trapped in traffic while saving ground, which allowed SPINOFF to get first run on him. Coming off the bend Saez went for a gap between Spinoff and SUENO, but when that narrowed Saez quickly adjusted and angled back inside, between Sueno and a tiring Lemniscate. By My Standards came charging up the rail, poked his head in front of Spinoff with 150 yards to go, and was edging away at the wire.

Spinoff, who finished second, bumped a couple of times with HOG CREEK HUSTLE in the opening strides, then advanced to head into the first turn in the three path, just behind and outside of Lemniscate and Sueno. He remained outside and advanced in the three path on the far turn to engage the leaders, grabbed the lead from Sueno in upper stretch, was quickly tackled by By My Standards, and couldn’t go with the winner late. He had an ideal, stalking trip, but this was a good effort for his second start following a six-month layoff.

Sueno, who was third, was not sent along but had enough natural speed to go into the first turn just behind and outside of Lemniscate. He moved closer to race alongside Lemniscate beginning five furlongs out, took the lead without being asked, was roused heading off the bend to try and stave off Spinoff, began to weaken near the furlong pole and couldn’t keep up with the top two late. He’s a hard-knocking sort who has now placed in three straight graded stakes at three different tracks.

COUNTRY HOUSE, who was fourth, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, then raced in traffic coming under the wire the first time while toward the rear of the pack. He was angled to the three path around the first turn and raced in the clear, then launched his bid while five paths wide on the far turn. He loomed a major danger heading into the lane, and though he did not lug in as he did in the Risen Star, he was closer to the top two with a furlong to go than he was at the wire, and he was certainly being asked for his all by Luis Saez.

MR. MONEY, who was fifth, took an awkward stride behind not long after leaving the gate, then raced about three to four paths wide on the first turn while following Spinoff. He never could get over and was caught four paths wide around the far turn, had to check briefly in upper stretch behind Spinoff, then was outrun through the lane.

ROILAND, who finished sixth, raced midpack early while hugging the rail, followed By My Standards around the far turn while continuing to save ground, only had to come around the fading Lemniscate and lacked the needed acceleration through the lane.

BANKIT, who was seventh, bobbled and veered out leaving the gate, then was rated and dropped back to last entering the first turn, though he was able to get over to the rail. He stayed inside initially on the far turn but gradually was angled around traffic and came off the bend in the five path, but he never was involved to any meaningful degree.

Hog Creek Hustle, who was eighth, bumped with Spinoff leaving the gate, and went into the first turn about two to three paths wide toward the back half of the field while pulling a bit. He was just outside Roiland entering the backstretch, followed WAR OF WILL into the lane, angled toward the rail but had nothing to offer through the stretch.

War of Will, who was ninth, took a couple of awkward strides shortly after the start when his hind end dropped, which put him midpack entering the first turn, not in his usual stalking position. He raced between rivals in about the three path on the first turn, lost some position heading down the backstretch, then had to sit in traffic behind Sueno and Spinoff and inside of Mr. Money around the far turn. He followed Spinoff into the lane, tried to angle out for room, but was outrun through the lane. His trainer, Mark Casse, said that he was “off significantly” in his right hind while cooling out after the race, but that he was doing better the next morning. Still, this was far from an ideal final prep. He had a legitimate excuse, but the stellar trips he had in his prior starts leave reasonable doubt as to whether he could overcome adversity if faced with a less-than-ideal scenario on Derby Day.

LIMONITE, who was 10th, dropped back entering the first turn, saved ground, and was only in front of stablemate Bankit heading into the backstretch. He remained well back to the far turn, was roused and followed Country House while wide around the turn, but was another who failed to have any appreciable late kick.

Lemniscate, who finished last of 11, was quickest of all away from the gate and took the lead, had Sueno take him on heading down the backstretch, began to weaken near the quarter pole, failed to change leads, then emptied out.