Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Lecomte Stakes analysis
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLE
Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, one mile and 70 yards, Fair Grounds, Jan. 19, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: War of Will, by War Front
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owner: Gary Barber
Beyer Speed Figure: 94
WAR OF WILL has a grass pedigree (he’s out of a Sadler’s Wells mare), so it’s understandable that he began his career on that surface, but he has improved noticeably since moving to the dirt. After a maiden win at Churchill Downs on a sloppy, sealed track to end his 2-year-old campaign in November, he began his 3-year-old season with his best performance yet, capturing this race with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure while leaving no doubt as to his superiority, winning by four lengths. The final time was 1.9 seconds faster than the Silverbulletday for fillies run one race earlier. This is a colt heading in the right direction.
War of Will took an awkward stride leaving the gate but quickly got underneath himself and advanced to a forward position. He was three paths wide entering the first turn, then had to check slightly and angle a bit farther out when MANNY WAH crossed over in front of him. He was extremely aggressive turning up the backside while appearing as though he could go past Manny Wah and early leader MALPAIS whenever Gaffalione desired. He advanced outside those rivals while three paths wide on the far turn and still under a snug hold, was asked to kick away in upper stretch, did so immediately, and ran on through the wire. He’s a beautiful-moving horse. As good as this race was, I think he might even be better if he gets cover, as he ran up the backside like a turf horse who would settle better with some cover. He is a very exciting prospect.
HOG CREEK HUSTLE, who was second, raced between rivals in the 2 path in the back half of the field around the first turn, was angled toward the middle of the track down the backstretch, began his rally in the 3 path around the far turn, got fanned about six wide entering the lane, and finished with enthusiasm. He was no match for the winner, but he acted like more than a late-running sprinter, which is what he appeared to be, based on his prior form.
Manny Wah, who was third, showed good speed from his outside draw, went into the first turn in the 4 path, then dropped down to be lapped on Malpais midway around that turn. He volleyed for the lead down the backstretch and into the far turn, got the best of Malpais midway on the turn, was even with War of Will entering the lane, but could not go with the winner, though he fought on bravely to hold third while swapping over to his wrong lead. Extra distance likely won’t help his cause.
WICKED INDEED, who finished fourth, hugged the rail while just behind Malpais around the first turn, continued to get a gorgeous trip down the backstretch and around the far turn, only had to come around the tiring Malpais coming off the bend, then finished evenly. This wasn’t a bad race for a colt making only his third start, but he could not have had a better trip.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT, who was fifth, took a bad stumble leaving the gate, raced in midpack while three to four paths wide on the first turn, inched forward down the backstretch, entered the far turn in the 3 path while following War of Will, was fanned five wide entering the lane while just inside of Hog Creek Hustle, but couldn’t sustain his rally.
CHASE THE GHOST, who was sixth, raced just inside Plus Que Parfait around the first turn, had to sit in traffic heading down the backstretch, moved closer to the rail on the far turn and followed Wicked Indeed into the lane, and finished evenly along the rail.
ROILAND, who was seventh, added blinkers for this race but still came away from the gate as though he wanted to sleep in just a bit longer. He saved ground while last around the first turn, remained inside until midway on the far turn, gradually was angled out and came into the lane in the 4 path, and never was a factor.
NIGHT OPS, who finished eighth, saved ground toward the rear of the pack around the first turn, continued to hug the rail the rest of the way, was asked for his best on the far turn, but had little to offer.
TACKETT, who was ninth, raced between Wicked Indeed and War of Will around the first turn, remained in a good, striking position around the far turn, drifted out entering the lane to the 4 path while beginning to tire, was late to change leads – another sign he was struggling – then steadily retreated.
TIGHT TEN, who was 10th, was bumped leaving the gate, went into the first turn toward the back of the pack while three paths wide, made some mild progress on the far turn while racing in the 2 path and being asked, but had nothing to offer in the stretch. Not sure what’s become of the sharp early speed he showed at the beginning of his career, but he looked like he was just going through the motions here.
Malpais, who was 11th, was sent along from his inside draw to take the early lead, vied for the lead down the backstretch and around the far turn, began to weaken coming to the quarter pole and faded. Back to sprints for him.
MO SPEED, officially last of 12, was out of sorts. He delayed the start while refusing to load – something he had done in his prior start, which he won – lacked speed and raced near the back of the pack around the first turn while checking in a bit of traffic, was angled to the middle of the track down the backstretch while lugging out, then dropped back to last despite being hustled along, was sympathetically ridden in upper stretch, and then was pulled up. The official chart says he walked off the course.
