Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Holy Bull analysis

Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park, Feb. 2, 2019
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Harvey Wallbanger, by Congrats
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Harold Lerner LLC, AWC Stables, Nehoc Stables, Scott Akman, and Paul Braverman
Beyer Speed Figure: 85

HARVEY WALLBANGER pulled off a 29-1 upset in this race, rallying from last in the nine-horse field under another terrific ride from Brian Hernandez Jr., whose exploits have been seen in a number of Derby preps this season, albeit in losing efforts such as with Signalman in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After reading that linked analysis, you should go back and watch video of the race because it’s brilliant race riding.

This was, too. Hernandez likely made the difference in the race, but the overall quality of the Holy Bull is certainly questionable regarding Derby contenders. The winning fig was allowance-class, and the heavy favorite, MAXIMUS MISCHIEF, regressed off his Remsen win. Anyone exiting this race will have to improve significantly in coming months.

In this race, Harvey Wallbanger lacked speed per usual and trailed early, began to rally in earnest on the far turn while hugging the rail, made up plenty of ground on the turn, and was able to come right up the rail in the final furlong to prevail. The hot pace (:23.18 opening quarter) helped his late run, but the ride was phenomenal. After losing his first three starts, Harvey Wallbanger is now 2 for 2 with Hernandez.

EVERFAST, who was second at 128-1, saved ground on the first turn while mid-pack, inched closer while remaining inside down the backstretch, was outrun three furlongs out when initially asked for his best, was under heavy urging when Harvey Wallbanger came up inside him nearing the top of the lane, then was angled to the middle of the track and kept plugging away for the place. He looked like he was going to finish about fifth with a quarter-mile to go. He was well beaten in his prior graded stakes tries and had a career-best figure of 70 coming in, underscoring the belief that this race was subpar for a Derby prep in February.

Maximus Mischief, who was third, was very washy coming to the gate. He broke well and went into the first turn just behind and outside the early leader, EPIC DREAMER, and though he sat in that spot up the backstretch his ears were pinned, a further sign – along with his being washy - that he was out of sorts this day. He was right on Epic Dreamer’s hip three furlongs out, was urged aggressively midway on the far turn but only fractionally cut into Epic Dreamer’s lead, finally worked his way past Epic Dreamer in deep stretch but had no fight for either Harvey Wallbanger or Everfast. This was a big step backward for a colt who had won all three of his prior starts with Beyer figures of 94 or better.

Epic Dreamer, who was fourth, was sent along to take the early lead, rolled along with a clear lead while setting a legitimate pace, turned back an initial bid from Maximus Mischief three furlongs out, led into the lane, was asked for his best at that point, fought bravely until deep stretch and then tired.

MIHOS, who finished fifth, was a couple lengths behind the top two while third around the first turn, checked between rivals shortly after turning into the backstretch, had to be nudged along to hold his position but had trouble doing so, was sent along aggressively with a half-mile to go and split horses into the far turn, dropped back anew midway on the turn, swung out and made up some ground late. He never was a factor at any point, and yet was beaten less than four lengths. He acts like he much prefers to race outside horses. When he was inside or between rivals he looked uncomfortable.

GARTER AND TIE, who was sixth, reared up in the gate before the start and tossed Tyler Gaffalione. When the gate opened, he lacked speed and raced toward the rear of the pack while inside, had Harvey Wallbanger flash past him three furlongs out while racing in the two path, got through inside and finished evenly. He’s another who was never a threat yet wasn’t beaten all that badly, which is not a good look for this field overall.

FEDERAL CASE, who was seventh, hopped in the air leaving the gate, checked off heels shortly thereafter, then moved between rivals around the first turn, drafting in behind Mihos. He was angled to the middle of the track heading into the backstretch, made a bid while four paths wide early on the far turn and got up to third, but was done before the quarter pole, was late to change leads coming off the bend, and steadily faded.

COME ON GERRY, who was eighth, raced mid-pack while three paths wide around the first turn, stayed in that spot down the backstretch, had to be urged along with a half-mile to go to hold his position, went into the far turn three paths wide while continuing to drop back, then was sympathetically ridden the final quarter-mile.

GLADIATOR KING, who finished last of nine, held up the start for a couple of minutes while repeatedly refusing to load. Smart horse - he knew he was overmatched. He was caught four paths wide on the first turn after starting from the outside stall, got floated out to the middle of the track early on the backstretch by Federal Case, went into the far turn about four to five paths wide and never got close. He’s actually 2 for 2 sprinting on turf, so perhaps his connections should refocus.