Road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Champagne Stakes analysis

Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes, one mile, Belmont Park, Oct. 6, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Complexity, by Maclean’s Music
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Beyer Speed Figure: 94

COMPLEXITY followed up his big debut win on the closing day of Saratoga’s meeting with a runaway victory here, again showing the high speed that he had in his first start, with a notable improvement in the way he left the gate. His next start is scheduled to be the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 2. That will mark his first try around two turns, and likely will go a long ways toward indicating whether he’s a serious Derby candidate.

At the moment, the jury’s out on his distance capabilities. In his post-race report, colleague David Grening quoted Ortiz as saying 1 1/16 miles (the Juvenile distance) should be within reach, but beyond that was a question. I don’t know how far he wants to run, but I do believe this is a high-quality colt. He sets fast fractions and keeps on motoring. He ran right through the wire in this race and galloped out well. He’s a major contender for the Juvenile. After that, we’ll see.

In this race, Complexity broke well and then immediately spurted clear of his rivals. He set a quick pace, but appeared to be going well within himself, something that should serve him well when he stretches out. Ortiz looked back several of times on the far turn to assess the competition as Complexity drew away from his rivals. Complexity opened a sizeable lead in upper stretch, and the result was never in doubt. The official chart claims he “appeared” to change leads to his incorrect lead in midstretch. I see zero evidence of that.

CODE OF HONOR, who finished second, stumbled badly leaving the gate, then was outrun and dropped back to last. He made steady progress down the backstretch and into the far turn, came under a ride three furlongs out, and after first appearing to not respond then knifed between horses while picking it up anew. He had to gradually be angled to the five path coming off the bend to go around traffic, never threatened the winner in the lane but was much the best of the rest. He had a soft-paced, front-running win in his debut. He got a lot more out of this. And his pedigree indicates the farther, the better. I like him.

CALL PAUL, who was third, settled into third down the backstretch, about two lengths behind Complexity while outside ACHILLES WARRIOR. He was three paths wide on the far turn, got up into second while well back of Complexity in upper stretch, and though he held on for third he really didn’t finish off the race well. He’s not bred to run far, and this likely was the outer limits of his comfort zone.

AURELIUS MAXIMUS, who was fourth, was outrun early and was only in front of Code of Honor a quarter-mile into the race, was last entering the far turn, did not have the same acceleration as Code of Honor when trying to rally on the turn, was four paths wide much of the turn, followed Code of Honor into the lane, and though he finished decently he still couldn’t run down distance-challenged Call Paul.

TROPHY CHASER, who was fifth, was a bit sluggish the first jump out of the gate but moved between rivals in the opening quarter to establish position in the front half of the field. He was right outside ENDORSED into and around much of the turn, got shuffled back near the quarter pole when Achilles Warrior began his fade, cut inside to follow Endorsed, had to wait anew when a hole closed between Endorsed and Call Paul in upper stretch, and never recovered. He probably needs softer company, but he didn’t have the cleanest of trips either.

Endorsed, who was sixth, raced midpack while hugging the rail down the backstretch, got a gorgeous, rail-skimming trip around the turn and loomed a potential threat a quarter-mile out, but not only didn’t make any impact thereafter, but in fact lost ground. Considering his trip, he should have done a lot better.

CASA CREED, who was seventh, went to his face with a bad stumble leaving the gate, never could get over from his wide draw, and went into the far turn four paths wide while toward the back of the field. He could not go with Code of Honor midway on the turn and dropped all the way back to last, then passed a few weary rivals late.

LISTING, who was eighth, raced three paths wide while midpack down the backstretch, remained three wide while following Call Paul around the far turn, but was out-footed by the likes of Code of Honor in upper stretch and never threatened.

SUCCESSFUL ZIP, who finished ninth, was out-footed leaving the gate and dropped back to eighth, moved inside heading into the far turn and was right behind Endorsed, but began to lose ground midway on the turn and had nothing to offer.

Achilles Warrior, who was last of 10, raced on the hip of Complexity after a quarter-mile with Call Paul just to his outside, was shoved along midway on the far turn to try and keep pace with Complexity, but was spent by the quarter pole and dropped back through the field.