Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Withers Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $245,000 Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, Feb. 3, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Avery Island, by Street Sense
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Owner: Godolphin Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 87

AVERY ISLAND made his 3-year-old debut a winning one and now has won three times in his last four starts, but for me, this race confirmed two opinions held dear for months – Catholic Boy is one of the best Derby prospects, and FIRENZE FIRE is not cut out for the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles.

Avery Island was a distant second to Catholic Boy last fall in the Remsen Stakes, and though Avery Island got a career-best Beyer in this race, he’s still flirting with first-level allowance numbers five starts into his career. In his favor, though, is that he’s in the care of an outstanding trainer, is by a Derby winner, and is out of a mare whose sire (A.P. Indy) won the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so the distances he’ll be asked to tackle in upcoming months should be right in his wheelhouse. The question will be if he gets faster.

In this race, Avery Island broke well and vied for the early lead with COLTANDMISSISSIPPI around the first turn before Bravo wisely conceded the lead. Avery Island then ended up in an ideal stalking position heading down the backstretch, just behind and outside Coltandmississippi. He moved to take the lead on the far turn, with Bravo looking back for competition, was asked for his best entering the lane, never really accelerated but steadily ground out the victory. The last three furlongs took 39.44 seconds.

Firenze Fire, who finished second, broke well but settled into fourth while saving ground around the first turn. He got very keen entering the backstretch and closed quickly on the leaders – the prototypical move made by a one-run, one-turn horse when trying two turns – then ended up in a pocket behind Coltandmississippi and inside Avery Island. He sat there until three furlongs remained, at which point he was able to get out when Avery Island went after Coltandmississippi. He was asked for all he had through the lane and certainly gave it his best but could not close the gap despite the slow final fractions, and he appeared spent crossing the wire. He’s a very nice colt who just does not want to run this far.

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MARCONI, who was third, checked leaving the gate and trailed the field into the first turn, fell farther back as the field entered the backstretch, steadily reached a contending position late on the backstretch, split Firenze Fire and BAL HARBOUR three furlongs out while being ridden along aggressively, entered the lane in the 3 path while just outside Firenze Fire, but could not get past Firenze Fire, let alone become a threat to Avery Island. He’s kind of a steady, one-paced runner.

Coltandmississippi, who was fourth, was sent along with purpose leaving the gate to vie for and then take the lead, was given a slight breather midway down the backstretch, was asked hard to try to go with Avery Island when challenged but could not keep up, then faded badly through the lane.

Bal Harbour, who finished last of five, went into the first turn in an ideal spot – third, behind two dueling leaders – was angled wide down the backstretch and went into the far turn in the 3 path, was shoved along three furlongs out but had nothing to offer and quickly dropped away.