Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: UAE Derby analysis

Grade 2, $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby, about 1 3/16 miles (1,900 meters), Meydan, March 31, 2018
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Mendelssohn, by Scat Daddy
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Owners: Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, and Derrick Smith
Beyer Speed Figure: 106

I’m usually dismissive of the UAE Derby winner since the competition is often substandard, but MENDELSSOHN already had proven at age 2 that he was a high-class colt, and his win here – in his dirt debut while earning the strongest Beyer Speed Figure on the prep trail – stamps him as a legitimate win candidate five weeks hence, especially when considering he’s trained by arguably the best trainer in the world and ridden by arguably the best jockey in the world. These are top-class connections.

Now, about that fig – the Beyer team is able to make figs on the World Cup card because of the large number of U.S.-based runners who go there, giving them a baseline in their ability to calculate figs. At the day’s conclusion, Andy Beyer informed me that he and cohort Randy Moss both made figures independent of one another on the card and came up with identical calculations.

“We have a high degree of confidence in these races because there were so many U.S. horses in the World Cup on which to base our figures,” Beyer said in an e-mail.

Regarding Mendelsohn’s 106 specifically, Beyer said, “The data on Saturday was so clear-cut that we have total confidence in the fig.”

Often in these analyses, I look at all the runners, but the only ones who matter here are the first three, being as they will be making their next starts in the U.S., so they are the only ones addressed.

In this race, Mendelssohn was sent along aggressively by Moore to make the lead, was narrowly in front of Yulong Warrior around the first turn, put that rival away down the backstretch, began to widen on his rivals on the final turn while going well within himself, was slightly late on his lead change in upper stretch, was ridden along by Moore and received a couple of taps of the whip while increasing his margin, and continued his one-sided assault on his competition.

The opening quarter (actually 400 meters) was 25.09 seconds, which obviously is slow and had to benefit Mendelssohn, but remember that in Dubai, races are timed from the moment the gate opens, as there is no run-up. In the U.S., where there is a run-up to the timing pole, his opening split would have been 24 and change.

Mendelssohn got an ideal setup here. In the Derby, he likely will find more pace and the potential to have to take dirt and sit behind some rivals, but there’s no doubt he belongs in the race and has to be feared.

RAYYA, who was second, is worth noting as this filly will be joining Bob Baffert’s barn and could run in the Kentucky Oaks on May 4. In this race, she was sent along from her rail draw but was outsprinted to the lead by Mendelssohn, checked slightly approaching the first turn and then took up a position directly behind Mendelssohn, was even with Gold Town while just behind Mendelssohn heading around the final turn, was asked to keep up beginning about three furlongs out, got the best of Gold Town while Mendelssohn sailed away from her and everyone else, never changed leads but easily held second. Considering that she was in a chasing position the whole way yet still outfinished everyone other than Mendelssohn, this wasn’t a bad effort at all. In a year in which the Kentucky Oaks field doesn’t look to be coming up all that strong, she deserves a chance.

RERIDE, who was third, was coming off a win in the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland and was sent here owing to the rich purse. Unfortunately for him, he ran into a buzz saw. He broke well and was ridden in the initial furlong to get a good position into the first turn, just behind the leaders, was angled to the middle of the track down the backstretch and was nudged a bit five furlongs out to try to hold his position, was shuffled back to seventh on the final turn, got a few taps of the whip more than three furlongs out, kept to his task to earn the show while passing some tired rivals but was beaten more than 20 lengths.

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