Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Santa Anita Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Santa Anita, April 7, 2018
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Justify, by Scat Daddy
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm
Beyer Speed Figure: 107

JUSTIFY continued his rapid rise through the ranks of the nation’s best 3-year-olds by knocking off the highly accomplished Bolt d’Oro in the West’s major prep for the Kentucky Derby, and in the process earning the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in this year’s Derby preps. He has produced Beyer Speed Figures of at least 101 in all three of his starts.

He will be a polarizing horse for bettors in the Kentucky Derby based on this race. Those who want to go against him will rightly point out that he got loose on the lead here and is unlikely to get a similar trip in the 20-horse Derby field, and that he will be trying to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start at age 2 since 1882. He’s also a massive physical specimen, so an inside draw at the Derby would not be to his benefit. He wants to be outside, where those long legs can get into a high-cruising speed.

Those who support him will simply point out that he is the fastest horse, and perhaps a very special one. Consider that Justify went from an unstarted maiden to a Grade 1 winner in 48 days. That’s an incredibly difficult achievement for a 3-year-old at this time of year, especially when that third victory involves knocking off a horse as good as BOLT D’ORO, who, remember, ran McKinzie to a photo finish in the San Felipe four weeks earlier. In addition, Justify ran one week earlier than initially intended, owing to subbing for stablemate McKinzie after McKinzie went out with an injury. Now, Justify will have four weeks to get ready for the Derby instead of three had he run in the Arkansas Derby.

The only horse of recent vintage whom I can compare to Justify is Curlin, who in 2007 won his first three starts, the last of which was the Arkansas Derby, before going on to finish third in the Kentucky Derby. Curlin made his first start on Feb. 3, and the Arkansas Derby that year was, like this year, on April 14, so he had 70 days from his debut to his third start. He then came back in the Derby on three weeks’ rest. Justify debuted on Feb. 18, and thus had 22 fewer days than Curlin in which to cram in his three-race, pre-Derby campaign, and now gets one more week than Curlin from his final prep to the Derby. To accomplish what he has in such a short amount of time, and against a high-class horse like Bolt d’Oro, is a tremendous feat.

In this race, Justify made the top without having to be hustled, started to roll along midway around the first turn and down the backstretch to open a daylight lead, spurned a bid from Bolt d’Oro midway around the far turn – during which Smith took a quick peek over his shoulder – drifted out a bit into the lane, was slightly late to change leads, had Bolt d’Oro loom menacingly along the inside, but then pulled away anew from Bolt d’Oro in the final furlong.

Bolt d’Oro, who was second, was bumped lightly by JIMMY CHILA leaving the gate and raced on his wrong lead under the wire the first time, conceded the lead to Justify and then was angled outside him going around the first turn, was asked aggressively three furlongs out to go after Justify and was turned back, angled inside of Justify in upper stretch when Justify drifted out, made another bid inside of Justify in the stretch but again was stymied, and was losing ground in the final sixteenth. He was in a chasing position the entire way and should get more help in the Derby.

These are two very talented colts.

CORE BELIEFS, who was third, raced on his wrong lead under the wire the first time, was just behind and outside of Bolt d’Oro around the first turn while two to three paths wide, was under a vigorous hand ride three furlongs out in a futile attempt to keep pace with the two leaders, ducked out a bit at midstretch, and though no threat to the top two did not quit and ran on decently for third. He’s not Derby caliber, but he’s improving like a colt who could do some good later this year.

INSTILLED REGARD, who was fourth, bobbled one jump out of the gate, saved ground toward the rear of the pack around the first turn, was angled out nearing the far turn and went around that turn in the three path, then went evenly through the stretch. The pace did him no favors, but he doesn’t seem to have progressed since losing the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity by less than a length last fall.

PEPE TONO, who was fifth, raced on his wrong lead to the first turn while midpack and just outside of Jimmy Chila, tried to split horses going into the far turn but could not keep up, and dropped farther back through the lane.

ORBIT RAIN, who was sixth, was taken in hand early and dropped back to last, was a bit keen while just outside of Instilled Regard around the first turn, was hung out four paths wide on the far turn, dropped back to last, then passed one exhausted rival in the final furlong. Considering he’s a maiden and a stablemate of Bolt d’Oro’s, I don’t understand the point of running him here. It’s not like he was used as a rabbit.

Jimmy Chila, who finished last of seven, bumped with Bolt d’Oro leaving the gate, hugged the rail around the first turn while midpack, advanced inside and was right on the hip of Bolt d’Oro heading into the far turn, but then had the leaders rapidly get away from him as he began a steady fade.