Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: San Felipe analysis

Grade 2, $400,690 San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, March 10, 2018
(50 Derby qualifying points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third, 5 for fourth)

Winner: Bolt d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro
Trainer: Mick Ruis
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owner: Ruis Racing LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 101

In what on paper looked like the best race of the Kentucky Derby prep season so far, BOLT D’ORO and MCKINZIE put on a show and solidified their positions as two of the very best prospects for this year’s Derby.

What was unfortunate is that the result was decided in the stewards’ booth after several bumps in the final quarter-mile that the stewards had to sort through during a lengthy inquiry. McKinzie, who crossed the wire first, was taken down. This marked the second time in his four-race career that he has been involved in an inquiry following a stakes race. The first time, in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, he was the beneficiary of the stewards’ decision.

What was most significant about this race for Bolt d’Oro is that he came back as good as he left, and there had been some doubt earlier this year as to whether he’d get to that point. He was clearly one of the best of his generation last year at age 2, but a training setback in January, and some initial moderate works when he started training anew, called into question if he was the same horse.

His final work leading into this race was his best yet. Still, he had to face a horse in McKinzie who had run twice since Bolt d’Oro last competed, and whose work pattern had been uninterrupted in the two months since he last raced. For Bolt d’Oro to be virtually on even terms with McKinzie in his first start in four months speaks volumes to his talent.

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In this race, Bolt d’Oro got away well enough – not insignificant, as he often has broken poorly in races and works – and settled into a stalking spot just behind three dueling leaders entering the first turn. He drafted behind McKinzie down the backstretch, ranged up three wide – outside LOMBO and McKinzie – on the far turn after AQUILA began to tire, then traded sharp bumps with McKinzie heading into the lane. After having his hind end knocked sideways in upper stretch as a result of the bumping, he re-engaged and fought McKinzie to the wire, with Castellano doing his best to make things tight for McKinzie, who came slightly off his line near the wire, bumping with Bolt d’Oro. Bolt d’Oro galloped out right with McKinzie. The only worry now would be that this bare-knuckles fight takes more out the top two than you’d want.

McKinzie, who finished first but was moved back to second, broke sharply and raced between Lombo and Aquila around the first turn, raced comfortably in second, just behind Lombo, down the backstretch, took the lead when Lombo began his fade on the far turn, then was immediately challenged by Bolt d’Oro. He bumped twice solidly with Bolt d’Oro entering the lane, recovered from that incident quickly, and maintained a narrow advantage all the way to the wire while coming off his line in the closing yards. He’s never run a bad race.

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KANTHAKA, who was third, stumbled badly first jump out of the gate, raced about three paths wide while in the clear in fifth around the first turn, advanced on the far turn while initially saving ground, came into the lane in the three path while within hailing distance of the top two, but watched the top two draw away from him in upper stretch. He acts like his ideal trip is making one run around one turn.

PEACE, who was fourth, lacked speed and trailed while in the two path around the first turn, raced well back down the backstretch, split Lombo and Aquila in upper stretch, ducked down to the rail, but never was really in the hunt at any point.

AYACARA, who was fifth, raced near the rear of the field while hugging the rail around the first turn, dropped back to last three furlongs out when Peace went past him, drifted out entering the lane, then passed two exhausted rivals while badly outrun throughout.

Aquila, who was sixth, broke a half-step slow and then was under the whip to advance to a forward position, went into the first turn three deep – outside Lombo and McKinzie – raced under a snug hold into and then down the backstretch, was asked to hold his position three furlongs out, but steadily gave way.

Lombo, who finished last of seven, broke a bit awkwardly but got into gear immediately and set off for the lead, hugged the rail around the first turn, led narrowly into the far turn, was tackled by McKinzie three furlongs out, yielded nearing the top of the lane, and then really packed it in through the homestretch.