Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Sam F. Davis Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay Downs, Feb. 10, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Flameaway, by Scat Daddy
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Owner: John C. Oxley
Beyer Speed Figure: 92

The versatile FLAMEAWAY - adept on turf, dirt, and synthetic - moved back to the main track and won for the third time on dirt, though this was his first main-track win over a fast track as opposed to the off tracks on which he won previously. This marked his return to graded stakes on dirt since a disappointing try in the Iroquois Stakes last fall at Churchill Downs, his only previous dirt race on a dry surface.

Flameaway does appear to be improving, but at the moment he still seems a cut below the best of the division. He earns points here for bravely holding off CATHOLIC BOY, a colt whom I’ve held in high regard, but the long-term implications of this race may take awhile to sort out, since I’m torn over Catholic Boy’s race: Did he need the race? Was he not at his best over this surface? Was my enthusiasm misguided? And, as a result, am I not giving Flameaway his proper due?

Unlike the Iroquois, in which Flameaway stalked the pace, in this race he was sent to the lead by Lezcano, who was riding Flameaway for the first time. He set a decent pace over this surface, was nudged along three furlongs out to get separation from SEPTIMIUS SEVERUS, was immediately tackled by Catholic Boy, raced right with Catholic Boy until deep stretch and then gradually got the best of Catholic Boy near the wire. Putting Flameaway on the lead seems to have helped, as he’s won his last two utilizing that strategy. It certainly avoids getting kickback, often a problem for horses who prefer turf and who try the main track.

Flameaway was not nominated to the Triple Crown for $600 in January, but Casse said he would be nominated for $6,000 in March.

:: The Road to the Kentucky Derby Player's Package

Catholic Boy, who finished second, couldn’t get over from his outside draw and raced three to four paths wide on the first turn, inched closer to the leaders heading into the far turn but was forced three paths wide on that turn during a fast third quarter run in 23.52 seconds. Manny Franco took a confident peek behind him nearing the quarter pole as Catholic Boy collared Flameaway, but Catholic Boy could not go by despite extreme encouragement from Franco. He lost far more ground than he was beaten, and he made a strong move while wide during a fast interior fraction, all points in his favor. In addition, he might have needed the race; he only had four published works since his win in the Remsen. But my confidence in him was shaken a bit. His next start with be pivotal. It will not be at Tampa, so he won’t have that as an excuse. I’m expecting him to move forward.

VINO ROSSO, who finished third, raced between horses while just behind Flameaway around the first turn, was shuffled back to fifth heading into the far turn, could not keep up three furlongs out when initially asked to go after the leaders, then made up ground late. But I believe he was closing on two horses who had knocked each other out with a torrid duel over the final quarter mile.

HOLLYWOOD STAR, who was fourth, lacked speed per usual and trailed into the first turn, was asked to keep up with more than a half-mile remaining but could make no initial impact, raced three paths wide on the far turn, was just outside Vino Rosso nearing the quarter pole but had absolutely no kick in the lane.

NAVY ARMED GUARD, who was fifth, saved ground from his rail draw and went into the first turn right behind Flameaway, stayed in that spot to the far turn, could not keep up beginning three furlongs out and faded.

Septimius Severus, who was last of six, raced three paths wide on the first turn while just off the flank of Flameaway, advanced to put more pressure on Flameaway heading down the backstretch, had to be shoved along with three furlongs to go to try and hold his position between Flameaway and Catholic Boy, but was done by the quarter pole and quickly retreated.