Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Robert B. Lewis Stakes analysis

Grade 3, $151,380 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita, Feb. 3, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: Lombo, by Graydar
Trainer: Mike Pender
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Michael V. Lombardi
Beyer Speed Figure: 86

On paper, this looked like a subpar Derby prep – seven of the nine runners were eligible for a first-level allowance race, and the other two were maidens – and it played out that way, with the race receiving a figure suitable to a first-level allowance as LOMBO, making his first try around two turns after three sprints, led from start to finish.

Lombo was very aggressive in the paddock before the race, so full credit to Prat for being able to ration his speed throughout. But I’m not expecting anyone from this race to make the first Derby Watch top 20 out this week, which is an indictment of the overall quality of this field. There are many miles to travel until Derby Day, but right now, this race looks as if it’s going to be fairly forgettable.

Lombo used his keen sprint speed to immediately seize the lead, and he went into the first turn with a clear advantage. DARK VADER, SHIVERMETIMBERS, and INSCOM all inched closer early on the backstretch, and there was about a half-length separating the top four with five furlongs to go. Lombo continued to lead into the far turn, at which point those closest to him had to be asked to keep up. He opened up a commanding lead heading into the lane, was under heavy pressure the final furlong, but was able to last despite covering the final sixteenth in a pokey 7.07 seconds.

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AYACARA, who finished second, was at the rear of the pack while hugging the rail around the first turn, advanced closer while remaining inside down the backstretch, got through inside on the far turn while being asked aggressively by Kent Desormeaux, and was able to rally up the rail for second. The only way he could have saved more ground would have been if he was on the turf course.

Dark Vader, who was third, was a bit anxious in the walking ring before the race but was sensible when the gates opened. He saved ground around the first turn while following Lombo, angled out to the 2 path into the backstretch to be lapped on the leader, was shoved along three furlongs out but could not go with Lombo, then went evenly the rest of the way while unable to stave off Ayacara.

REGULATE, who was fourth, raced near the rear of the pack while three paths wide around the first turn, dropped back to last while remaining wide heading into the far turn, was three to four paths wide on the far turn, briefly hit some traffic entering the lane, but never really punched it in.

PEACE, who was fifth, fell into a sweet spot around the first turn – in fifth, with no one near him – was asked to move closer down the backstretch but made no headway, went into the far turn in the 4 path, but just went through the motions in the stretch. This was his first start with blinkers, and jockey Mike Smith said after the race he reacted poorly to wearing blinkers, but it’s hard to throw out the race based on that alone. This was a disappointing effort.

PEPE TONO, who finished sixth, saved ground while just inside of Regulate around the first turn, was outrun heading into the far turn and dropped back to eighth, followed Ayacara into the lane but was never in the hunt.

Shivermetimbers, who was seventh, raced between horses while just behind Lombo around the first turn, advanced in the 3 path to be lapped on the leader down the backstretch, began to retreat three furlongs out despite encouragement, and never was a threat thereafter. This was his second straight disappointing effort. I thought he was better than this. I’ve signed the divorce papers.

BLAME THE RIDER, who was eighth, bobbled a bit leaving the gate, was angled in from his outside stall to be just outside of Ayacara at the back of the field into the first turn, made a bit of progress in the 3 path heading into the far turn, but was pretty much done three furlongs out and made no progress the rest of the way.

Inscom, who finished last, raced three paths wide into the first turn while stalking Lombo, advanced to be widest of four at the front of the pack early in the run down the backstretch, appeared to be going well within himself as he entered the far turn in the 4 path, but had nothing to offer when asked and then went in reverse. Back to the turf for him.