Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity analysis

Grade 1, $300,000 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, 1 1/16 miles, Los Alamitos, Dec. 9, 2017

(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)

Winner: McKinzie, by Street Sense
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, and Paul Weitman
Beyer Speed Figure: 91

MCKINZIE was placed first in this race following the disqualification of his Baffert-trained stablemate, SOLOMINI, with INSTILLED REGARD right there, too. They finished well in front of their two outmatched rivals, and the final time of this race was 1.3 seconds faster than the Starlet run a half-hour later. The fig is certainly solid enough; it’s on par with what Catholic Boy got for the Remsen, for instance.

McKinzie was making only the second start of his career, so he was giving away plenty of experience to Solomini, who was exiting runner-up efforts behind divisional leaders Good Magic in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes. This also was his first try around two turns; his only prior start was a debut win against maidens going seven furlongs.

So, taking away the considerable debate over this DQ, McKinzie proved himself as a top prospect to watch. He was taking the worst of it regarding experience – from a general standpoint in terms of racing, and specifically for distance – yet still was right with Solomini. He gives Baffert at least two top Derby prospects heading into the main Santa Anita winter meeting, and he’s got a deep bench.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

McKinzie, placed first via the DQ, veered in slightly at the start and then settled into a stalking position, three deep, heading into the first turn, then was fanned to the four path when RUNAWAY GHOST advanced quickly into and around the first turn. He remained wide while just off the lead down the backstretch, went into the far turn in the three path, took a brief lead midway on the turn, was quickly challenged by Instilled Regard, held off that rival through the lane despite getting bumped in his hindquarters a sixteenth out after drifting out, could not hold off Solomini late, but got put up.

Instilled Regard, moved from third to second via the DQ, was taken in hand early from his rail draw and trailed into the first turn, raced in the three path around the first turn while in the clear as the other four battled for the lead, moved up four paths wide to go after the leaders heading into the far turn, was even with McKinzie a quarter-mile out, could not get past McKinzie, drifted in and swapped leads when struck with a right-handed whip a furlong out, swapped back to his right lead, then switched leads again when bumped between rivals in deep stretch. I’m torn about his race. He could not get past McKinzie, but he did make an aggressive move during a fast middle part of the race (second quarter in 22.99 seconds, third quarter in 23.94), which might have contributed to him losing his punch a bit late.

Solomini, DQ’d from first to third, raced on his wrong lead first time through the lane, went into the first turn just outside of the leader, FOR HIM, dropped back a bit during the quickly run second and third quarter-miles of the race and briefly was last, was angled widest of all heading into the lane, came in when struck right-handed in deep stretch, swapped over to his wrong lead, finished best of all after the top three bumped one another, then lost the race in the stewards’ booth. He crossed the wire first or second in all four of his starts, a solid 2-year-old campaign.

For Him, who finished fourth, took the lead and hugged the rail around the first turn, vied for the lead down the backstretch and into the far turn, began to wilt near the five-sixteenths pole, and was no factor thereafter.

Runaway Ghost, who finished last of five, was just behind the early leaders the first furlong but then got rank and moved aggressively into and around the first turn to challenge for the lead, dueled with For Him down the backstretch and into the far turn, got the best of For Him nearing the top of the lane, but dropped anchor after heading into the lane and was so exhausted that For Him came back to beat him for fourth.