Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Jerome analysis
Listed, $150,000 Jerome Stakes, one mile, Aqueduct, Jan. 13, 2018
(10 Derby qualifying points for a win, 4 for second, 2 for third, 1 for fourth)
Winner: Firenze Fire, by Poseidon’s Warrior
Trainer: Jason Servis
Jockey: Manny Franco
Owner: Mr. Amore Stable
Beyer Speed Figure: 85
There wasn’t much to learn from this race regarding FIRENZE FIRE, who, as I opined after he won the Champagne more than three months ago, has the look of a one-run, one-turn horse. This race was right in his wheelhouse, though the conditions were challenging, as it was run over muddy, sealed track that appeared to favor those closer to the pace.
So Firenze Fire certainly scores points for rallying from off the pace over a track that seemingly was against his style, but the Beyer Figure was about what first-level allowance horses run, and I remain skeptical over this colt’s two-turn abilities. As colleague David Grening reported, Firenze Fire is likely to await the Gotham – like the Champagne and the Jerome a one-turn mile – meaning the Wood Memorial might be the next and final time Firenze Fire will get a chance to prove he can handle two turns prior to the Kentucky Derby. He was found wanting in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his only two-turn race to date. Long term, I think he’s more of an Allen Jerkens (née King’s Bishop) prospect.
In the Jerome, Firenze Fire broke sharply but then was allowed to drop back to last in the compact field, advanced about four paths wide on the far turn and made an extended rally around the turn, zigged and zagged in upper stretch while first trying to go after SEVEN TRUMPETS, and was able to run down the leader in the closing yards after receiving severe encouragement from Manny Franco in midstretch.
:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays
Seven Trumpets, who finished second, didn’t come out of the gate cleanly but quickly got in gear, split horses and took the lead while racing off the rail. He disposed of the longshots REGALIAN and FACTOR THIS nearing the quarter pole as Paco Lopez repeatedly looked over his right shoulder for Firenze Fire, drifted out and then back in in upper stretch, was repeatedly reminded of the urgency of the situation by Lopez, but could not hold off the winner. This was the farthest he had run in four outings.
COLTANDMISSISSIPPI, who was third, bobbled slightly leaving the gate, followed Seven Trumpets down the backstretch, was out-footed at the three-furlong pole and dropped back to last, then went evenly through the lane, passing a couple of tired rivals to gain the show while no threat to the top two.
Regalian, who was fourth, raced just behind and just outside of Seven Trumpets down the backstretch, was only a neck back with three furlongs to run, could not keep up with Seven Trumpets nearing the top of the lane, gamely hung in there until the furlong pole but weakened late.
Factor This, who was fifth, had no early speed and raced near the back of a compact field down the backstretch while right alongside Firenze Fire, split horses and then ranged up three paths wide on the far turn to vie for the lead, began to weaken near the quarter pole, was very late to switch leads in the stretch, and tired.
GLENNWOOD, who finished last of six, stalked the early pace from his outside draw, raced alongside Regalian down the backstretch, began to be outrun some three furlongs out and drifted wide enough to let Firenze Fire come up inside him, and was done before reaching the quarter pole while badly overmatched.
