Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Florida Derby analysis

Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park, March 31, 2018
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Audible, by Into Mischief
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm
Beyer Speed Figure: 99

I had noted in the weekly Derby Watch chart I do with colleague Mike Watchmaker that AUDIBLE reminded me quite a bit of Always Dreaming in terms of being a late developer who blossomed in Florida, and he furthered that impression by winning the Florida Derby, the same race Always Dreaming took last year in his final start before capturing the Kentucky Derby. They have different running styles, but both are coming to hand when it matters most for Pletcher.

Audible had won the Holy Bull nearly two months ago, then was kept fresh for this race. He proves again what I mentioned in last week’s race recap immediately following the Louisiana Derby – that no one is better than Pletcher at this time of year when it comes to finding the right spots for his horses in order to maximize their chances of knocking off a Derby prep and getting into the Derby. In addition to these two stakes wins with Audible, Pletcher this year also has won the Louisiana Derby with Noble Indy and the Rebel with Magnum Moon. Every one of those horses has been based at the Palm Beach Downs training center, but they are shrewdly moved around the country for races.

In this race, Audible broke well and was able to angle over and take up a good position behind two horses – and riders – who were intent on dueling themselves into submission. Once MISSISSIPPI went past him going around the first turn, Audible was able to race in the clear, and though he dropped back a bit entering the backstretch and at one point was only in front of one horse, the hot pace unfolding well in front of him was working to his advantage. He began an extended run heading into the far turn and wound up four paths wide on that turn, continued his charge and took the lead from Mississippi entering the lane, and drew away while appearing to want to drift out slightly through the final furlong. This was a solid performance, and he’s certainly a top candidate for the Derby, the one caveat being this race shape was made to order for him.

HOFBURG, who was second, lacked speed and was in front of just MILLIONAIRE RUNNER around the first turn, raced just inside of Audible for much of the backstretch, had to wait briefly behind CATHOLIC BOY nearing the far turn and then angled out to follow Audible, was asked for his best while getting fanned out a bit by Catholic Boy near the end of the turn, was just behind Audible entering the lane, could not go with him, but still finished with interest and was well in front of everyone else. Considering this was only his third start, he’s got a bright future. That a trainer like Bill Mott put him in this spot speaks volumes as to his potential. He had a bit of a trip and showed the ability to sit, wait, and respond a couple of times when asked by his rider, maturity not often found in a horse so early in his career. He’s worth watching closely.

Mississippi, who was third, broke well from his outside stall and went into the first turn three paths wide, just outside Audible, before moving past Audible into third behind the dueling leaders. He advanced on the leaders down the backstretch while going well within himself, loomed up three paths wide on the far turn, took the lead a quarter-mile out but was immediately tackled by Audible, then tired as the top two sailed away.

Catholic Boy, who finished fourth, raced two to three paths wide around the first turn while in the clear in sixth, looked to be going very well midway down the backstretch, raced in the 3 path while just inside Audible three furlongs out, was asked for his best nearing the quarter pole but began to drift out without much of a forward response, then went evenly the rest of the way. The day after the race, colleague David Grening reported that he bled in the race and would get some time off.

Millionaire Runner, who was fifth, had no speed and trailed while saving ground around the first turn, was well back of his rivals down the backstretch and into the far turn, gradually angled outside on the turn and came into the lane widest of all, lugged in awkwardly in upper stretch while on his wrong lead, but never was close to being a threat.

TIP SHEET, who was sixth, saved ground around the first turn while toward the latter half of the field, hugged the rail down the backstretch and around the far turn, dropped back to last, and then passed three exhausted rivals in the final quarter-mile.

STORM RUNNER, who was seventh, broke half a step slowly but quickly got in gear and secured a spot along the rail on the first turn in fourth, was under a snug hold while just inside Mississippi midway down the backstretch, had no response when it was needed midway on the final turn, moved around tiring stablemate PROMISES FULFILLED nearing the quarter pole but never showed any spark. He had trouble in the Fountain of Youth, but there’s not much excuse to give him this time.

STRIKE POWER, who was eighth, was sent along from his rail draw and ended up in a wicked duel through the opening quarter-mile with Promises Fulfilled, yielded the lead nearing the backstretch and sat just outside Promises Fulfilled down the backstretch, challenged for the lead on the far turn, got the best of Promises Fulfilled but was quickly overtaken by Mississippi and then Audible, did not change leads and hit a wall in the final furlong. The pace certainly took its toll, and I’ve always been skeptical of his ability to run this far, but the tactics here did him no favors. He had been trained to sit off horses prior to the Fountain of Youth, and that strategy was used in that race and served him well enough. Going all out for the lead here undid all those morning lessons.

Promises Fulfilled, who finished last of nine, was sent along for the lead and engaged in a ferocious early battle with Strike Power, took the lead when Strike Power finally conceded the lead, had to be shoved along three furlongs out to try to hold his position, but was done by the quarter pole and stopped badly. Pace made the race in his favor in the Fountain of Youth and was his undoing here.

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