Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Burradon Stakes analysis
Listed, $140,000 Burradon Stakes, 1 mile and 5 yards on Tapeta, Newcastle, March 30, 2018
Winner: Gronkowski, by Lonhro
Trainer: Jeremy Noseda
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Owner: Phoenix Thoroughbred Ltd.
Beyer Speed Figure: N/A
This victory made GRONKOWSKI the points leader after the seventh and final leg of the European Road to the Derby series, which was inaugurated this year by Churchill Downs and offered a carve-out that is separate from the main Road to the Derby races. Gronkowski thus secured a spot in the 20-horse field for the Kentucky Derby on May 5, and so this analysis is solely dedicated to his performance in this race and his chances in five weeks.
The Burradon is run at a tick over one mile – the farthest Gronkowski has raced – on a synthetic surface, on a straightaway, at a much smaller track than the major venues in England, and drew a soft field in which Gronkowski was favored. The contrast between the conditions and quality of runners that Gronkowski faced here and what he’ll face in the Derby – which will be his first start on dirt – could not be more vast.
In this race, Gronkowski was outrun early and was about eighth a furlong into the race, raced in traffic while covered up and was in front of just one horse about midway through the race, ducked down to the near rail for racing room with about a quarter-mile remaining, was ridden along aggressively to make enough steady progress to reach the front near the wire and prevailed in a workmanlike manner.
Gronkowski has been cleverly managed by his connections to take advantage of an easier path to the Derby via the European series. His trainer, a British native, was based in the U.S. earlier in his career and thus knows the ropes of the game over here. Also in Gronkowski’s favor is that he will be coming into the Derby riding a four-race win streak.
But he will have to run the race of his life to even hit the board. Because of his name, though, he is likely to take far more action than a horse with his credentials deserves and thus could contribute to a hint more value for the main win contenders.