Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby: Blue Grass Stakes analysis

Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, Keeneland, April 7, 2018
(100 Derby qualifying points for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth)

Winner: Good Magic, by Curlin
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables, LLC
Beyer Speed Figure: 95

GOOD MAGIC, last year’s champion 2-year-old male, improved upon his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth by putting away the stubborn FLAMEAWAY to prevail. The encouraging thing for Good Magic is that he progressed from his last start, much as he did at age 2, when his second start was better than his first, and his third – the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – was his best yet.

A similar pattern is what he’ll need this spring, since this Derby is coming up extremely deep. He’ll need another big move forward. But even if he gets back to his career top in the Breeders’ Cup, a Beyer figure of 100, that is likely to come up short in this Derby. He’s obviously a high-class colt, headed in the right direction, with the reigning, two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer guiding him, so whatever he is capable of, he’ll show it Derby Day.

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In this race, Good Magic got bounced around between rivals heading into the first turn and went around that turn just off the pace, while three to four paths wide. He advanced on the leaders on the far turn while three paths wide, was even with Flameaway heading into the lane, swapped leads when distracted by a shadow a sixteenth out, and steadily got the best of Flameaway while under a drive most of the stretch.

Flameaway, who finished second, had good speed and was able to cross over and get to the rail while vying for the lead around the first turn, raced with ARAWAK down the backstretch and to the far turn, put away Arawak with three furlongs to go, was quickly engaged by Good Magic, was late to change leads in upper stretch as Good Magic started to inch away, but kept plugging away in another game effort that has become his trademark. He’s not the best of this group, but you know you’ve been in a fight when you face him. He fires every time.

SPORTING CHANCE, who crossed the wire third, had good speed from his inside draw and went into the first turn right on the heels of Flameaway, stayed in that spot until midway on the far turn when he tried to split Flameaway and Good Magic, couldn’t keep up with the top pair in upper stretch, ducked in and changed leads at midstretch when being whipped right-handed, then ducked out sharply when walloped with the whip from his left side. He went right into the path of FREE DROP BILLY, yet despite leaving the mark of Zorro in the final furlong he still was trying to re-rally at the end. He was rightly disqualified and placed fourth.

Free Drop Billy, who originally finished fourth, raced toward the back half of the field while in traffic and three paths wide around the first turn, moved sharply to enter contention while about three to four paths wide entering the far turn while following Good Magic, was fanned widest into the lane, never was making up ground on the top two while plugging away, then had to check in deep stretch when Sporting Chance changed lanes without signaling. I don’t know if he was going to get up for third, but the foul was so egregious a DQ had to be made, and he was moved to third. It was a fortuitous decision for Free Drop Billy, because the points difference between third (20) and fourth (10) might be the difference between running in the Derby and not running in the Derby. Regardless, he just doesn’t seem to have gotten much better this year, and don’t forget, Keeneland is where he won the Breeders’ Futurity last fall, so if he was going to shine anywhere, it was here.

BLENDED CITIZEN, who was fifth, was a bit sluggish immediately leaving the gate, saved ground around the first turn while behind a wall of horses, was between rivals initially on the far turn before angling to the three path, belatedly changed leads near the furlong pole, made up a bit of ground late, but was aided by the dustup between Sporting Chance and Free Drop Billy to get closer to them than he might have otherwise.

KANTHAKA, who was sixth, was forwardly placed early, had to check slightly off the heels of Flameaway early on the first turn, settled into a stalking position just behind the leaders and just outside of Sporting Chance, was a bit keen heading down the backstretch, was right with Good Magic three furlongs out but was out-footed, and went evenly through the lane while wanting to drift in around midstretch. He was in a great striking position heading into the far turn and couldn’t finish off the race, furthering the impression I’ve had that he’s best as a one-run, one-turn horse.

TIZ MISCHIEF, who was seventh, raced at the rear of the pack while three paths wide around the first turn, remained well back down the backstretch, split horses entering the far turn and then angled to the rail, had a dream run the rest of the way along the inside but never was a threat. He’s still eligible to a first-level allowance, and hopefully that’s where he’ll go next.

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MARCONI, who finished eighth, was ridden away from the gate but is just too lumbering to gain a forward position, raced between rivals while at the rear of the pack around the first turn, got a bit closer heading down the backstretch when finding an opening along the rail, was under a vigorous hand ride beginning three furlongs out, largely saved ground around the final turn, shied away from Kanthaka at midstretch when Kanthaka came in, and finished evenly. This $2 million yearling purchase just isn’t living up to his price tag.

ZING ZANG, who was ninth, fell well back early, as is his custom, while saving ground, stayed inside most of the way, angled to the two path briefly on the far turn, but was always well back and never really got involved.

CALIFORNIA NIGHT, who was 10th, followed Sporting Chance around the first turn from the inside, waited slightly on the far turn but got through toward the inside near the quarter pole, was in a good spot entering the lane but began to weaken in upper stretch and faded.

GOTTA GO, who was 11th, raced between rivals while not far off the leaders around the first turn, was outrun down the backstretch and dropped well through the field to 12th, was at the rear of the pack in the three path heading into the far turn, got fanned out to about the four path entering the lane but was extremely dull the final six furlongs and was ridden home in a sympathetic manner.

MACHISMO, who was 12th, was bumped around into the first turn and was fanned to the four or five path, made a steady, mid-race move to advance and wound up just outside Good Magic while in the four path heading into the far turn, was fanned wider still around the turn, and steadily retreated.

DETERMINANT, who finished 13th, could not get over from his wide draw and was fanned about six paths wide around the first turn, checked slightly while well off the rail about a half-mile out, remained extremely wide into the far turn, was done by the quarter pole and was allowed to coast home while failing to change leads.

Arawak, who was last of 14, was asked to leave the gate with urgency, was able to get over from his wide draw to race alongside Flameaway around the first turn and down the backstretch, seemed a bit keen racing down the backstretch – perhaps owing to the addition of blinkers – began to tire three furlongs out and quickly dropped through the field.