Risen Star rematch likely in Louisiana Derby

NEW ORLEANS – The rematch is on, with the first three finishers in Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes likely to return for the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby on March 23 at Fair Grounds.

But is it a fair match? War of Will wasn’t quite as dominant winning the Risen Star, which he took by 2 1/4 lengths, as he was winning the Lecomte here Jan. 19 by five lengths. But the Risen Star outcome never really looked in doubt, and there are more reasons to believe War of Will can run better next month than there are to doubt his performance Saturday.

War of Will broke from post 13, which forced jockey Tyler Gaffalione to send his mount for early position, stoking his competitive fire and causing War of Will to race too keenly turning onto the backstretch. Gaffalione urged War of Will to collar pacesetting Gun It midway around the far turn, earlier than standard, and raced by himself the rest of the way and perhaps, his connections believe, losing focus and awaiting competition. Past the finish, War of Will, as he did in the Lecomte, galloped out powerfully around the far turn, appearing to have plenty left in reserve, had it been required.

“I still think he has a lot more in him,” David Carroll, assistant to trainer Mark Casse, said Sunday morning as War of Will stood across the shed row, head down in his feed tub.

War of Will got a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for running 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.59 and was the only horse anywhere near a half-mile split of 47.36 seconds to play any final role. The second- through fifth-place finishers all were at the back of the pack as War of Will pursued Gun It going into the far turn.

Casse and owner Gary Barber remain committed to keeping War of Will at Fair Grounds and starting in the Louisiana Derby, though the timing of that race toward the Kentucky Derby, a six-week gap, can be tricky. War of Will is in the Derby now, with 60 qualifying points assuring a spot in the field. But six weeks is a longer-than-standard break between a final prep and the Derby, while falling too close to the race to comfortably fit in another start, especially for a horse that already has raced three times during the year.

Casse has another Triple Crown hopeful, Dream Maker, stabled at Fair Grounds. Dream Maker won a Feb. 9 first-level allowance route, his first start since October, by more than eight lengths. He’s scheduled to make his next start in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9.

Country House, the Risen Star runner-up, returns Feb. 19 to trainer Bill Mott’s stable at Payson Park, and while Country House’s fourth career start was his best, and he beat 12 horses Saturday, his greenness in the homestretch might have proved costly. After rallying from 12th, Country House lugged in at about the eighth pole after passing everyone save War of Will.

“I think we ran well and moved forward, but if we’re going to beat [War of Will] we have to move forward again,” Mott said. “Not sure he’d have won, but I think we’d have been a little closer to him if we’d behaved a little better.”

Mott doesn’t know why Country House, who jumped up from a maiden win, didn’t run straight. “Was he getting a little tired? Perhaps. Maybe just inexperience.”

Country House got 20 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. Mott said the colt was likely to return next month for the Louisiana Derby.

Despite a dedicated attempt to get him into the race earlier, third-place Roiland, as he did in the Lecomte, compromised himself by falling too far behind the leader – 16 lengths at the half-mile pole.

“If Roiland is going to be a factor in his next race he has to find a way to get more engaged,” trainer Tom Amoss said.

Roiland got into contention running his second half-mile in about 47.40 seconds, but had no real shot at War of Will.

“I was encouraged by his finish. This was the race I was expecting in the Lecomte,” said Amoss, referring to Roiland’s seventh-place showing Jan. 19.

Amoss thinks Roiland will have one shot at earning enough qualifying points to make the Kentucky Derby, and given Roiland’s running style, his trainer will look for a race with real speed entered. The Louisiana Derby, Amoss said, is the top choice, but Roiland could start elsewhere if the pace in that race projects to be slow.