Restoring Hope looks like key to a mint in Rainbow 6

Saturday at Gulfstream Park is a special day for many horseplayers, and not just because it’s Florida Derby Day.

The Rainbow 6 is subject to a mandatory disbursement, and with an estimated $3 million of dead money in the rollover jackpot – assuming it isn’t swept by a solo winner Thursday or Friday – bettors will be taking their best cracks at taking down a piece of a massive pool. Racing began Thursday at the South Florida track with nearly $2.5 million in the jackpot.

Last year, amid similar circumstances on Florida Derby Day, more than $16 million in new Rainbow 6 wagers were placed in pursuit of a $4.7 million jackpot, with each winning 20-cent ticket paying $9,018. The winning horses’ odds were 14-1, 2-1, 3-1, 5-2, 2-1, and 8-5.

Once again, the Rainbow 6 will span the last six races (9-14), ending with the Florida Derby itself. Predictably, the sequence looks tricky, and unless you have unlimited funds in using as many combinations as you feel are warranted – punching “all” in every race would cost a cool $301,870.80, assuming fields for all six races max out – there are plenty of land mines for a bettor to trip over.

Still, there’s always hope, so here’s one man’s shot at glory with a $90 play:

Race 9

At grave risk of leaving out a number of live unknowns in this turf route for 3-year-old maidens, I’ve whittled this down to five of the 14 starters in the main body: Social Paranoia (8), Bad Boy (9), Machine Learning (10), Scattered Strikes (12), and Tiberius Mercurius (14).

Social Paranoia, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the most obvious choice despite a six-month layoff. After all, he was third in the Grade 3 Pilgrim last fall. Bad Boy enters off a solid runner-up finish nearly four weeks ago, while Tiberius Mercurius is a long-priced possibility who gets first-time Lasix after showing speed in his debut. Machine Learning, trained by Chad Brown, and Scattered Strikes, trained by Graham Motion, are first-timers with steady works for first-class stables.

Race 10

The class of the Sand Springs is Proctor’s Ledge (9), but will Brendan Walsh have her ready for a peak effort following a layoff of more than five months? Maybe this is just a prep for the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile on Kentucky Derby Day – or maybe she’ll prove superior anyway.

As backups, I’ll use Valedictorian (5), who ran a huge race four weeks ago when nipped by the Brown-trained Precieuse in the Honey Fox, and Andina Del Sur (8), an effective closer under the right pace scenario.

Race 11

Yup, this looks like one of those hopelessly contentious races that demands a liberal spread, but it’s where I’m stepping out on a limb with a single.

Restoring Hope (5), best known as the colt who may or may not have run early interference for Justify in the Belmont Stakes last June, is now trained by Jason Servis, who has been winning at an ungodly clip all winter. His win percentages in the categories that apply here – including first time with the trainer (40 percent) and horses returning from plus-180-day layoffs (43 percent) – are similarly jaw-dropping. With the knowledge that Restoring Hope is a horse of quality who has been regrouped and reenergized at Palm Meadows over the last couple of months by Servis, I’ll go boom or bust with him.

Race 12

This two-other-than allowance for turf milers is another race without a clear-cut favorite, so I’ll keep my fingers crossed and try to eke by with five of them: Pagliacci (1), Neepawa (3), Space Mountain (4), Battle of Blenheim (8), and Second Mate (11).

Race 13

The Pan American is just the type of older-horse turf marathon that Mike Maker has dominated in recent years, and he’s got a pair of top prospects here in Soglio (8) and Bigger Picture (9). As insurance, I’ll throw in Focus Group (1), who’s been working right along at Palm Meadows for Brown.

Race 14

Hidden Scroll (1) stands to benefit not only from his Fountain of Youth experience but from four more weeks of Bill Mott schooling, and it’ll be no surprise if the talented colt rates more kindly this time around. He ought to be able to shrug off the likes of Hard Belle and Maximum Security before going on about his business with something left in the tank.

If not, then Bourbon War (4) is the one to run him down. Not only did he close swiftly and gallop out strongest in the Fountain of Youth, but he hasn’t skipped a beat in his training for Mark Hennig.

The ticket
R9: 8, 9, 10, 12, 14
R10: 5, 8, 9
R11: 5
R12: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11
R13: 1, 8, 9
R14: 1, 4