Red Run can upset lukewarm favorite Rockemperor in River City Stakes

On Sept. 22, 2018, more than five years ago, Rockemperor won his career debut at Hyeres Racecourse, a tiny coastal track on the Ligurian Sea in far southern France. Saturday, Rockemperor travels to northwestern Kentucky, Churchill Downs, trying to snap a six-race losing streak dating to July 31, 2022.

You could say he’s in the right spot, since Rockemperor is favored on the morning line, but at 4-1, Rockemperor is a most tepid favorite, a price that speaks to the highly competitive nature of the Grade 3, $300,000 River City Stakes.

The River City, a 1 1/8-mile turf contest for older horses, drew 15 entrants, a dozen in the main body of the field, three on the also-eligible list. The morning line pegs the dozen designated starters at odds between 4-1 and 15-1. While a couple will float higher, there’s nothing like a defined favorite here.

You probably should ask for a higher price than 4-1 on Rockemperor, whose lone previous Churchill start came in September 2020, when he was third in the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic. While his last win came over 1 3/8 miles, Saturday’s nine-furlong distance is all right for Rockemperor, but the 7-year-old gelding hardly could have found a sweeter spot than the Singspiel Stakes on Sept. 9 at Woodbine, his most recent outing. His jockey might have moved prematurely, but, in any case, Rockemperor as the 13-10 favorite had a lead at the furlong grounds that Palazzi snatched away in deep stretch. And while Rockemperor had nearly six lengths on the third-place finisher, only seven ran in the Singspiel.

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Trainer Chad Brown is 13-1-1-1 in Churchill turf races this year, and for his career, his strike rate in Churchill grass stakes is 16 percent compared to 23 percent in all grass stakes.

F Five, Dominican Pioneer, and Stitched look like serious pace players, and the River City tempo should at least be legitimate. Pencil Cellist in for a ground-saving, stalking trip from post 1, but that might not be quite the right trip for Cellist going 1 1/8 miles.

Cellist comes out of a good second in the 1 1/2-mile Sycamore at Keeneland, and two of his three wins have come on the Churchill turf. He’s not hapless at this distance, and Cellist fits solidly, but he would be better off turning the River City into a test of stamina, since others will finish faster. Martin Garcia might go for an early move to get the jump on quicker closers.

Smokin’ T, more a miler so far, has a Churchill win and appeared to struggle with a good course at Pimlico, running well below his best form Sept. 16 in the Baltimore-Washington Turf Cup. He can rebound, while Grand Sonata, coming out of the 1 1/2-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, is one of two, along with Stitched (seventh in the Coolmore Turf Mile) dropping from Grade 1 competition.

Red Run is the selection. Trained by Mike Maker for Jordan Wycoff, who claimed the 4-year-old for $50,000 this past spring, Red Run was cross-entered in Saturday’s Red Smith at Aqueduct, but Maker said the colt was likely staying in Kentucky. Red Run briefly bloomed as a dirt marathoner this past summer but hit a new peak in his last two starts with a return to turf racing and with the addition of blinkers.

Red Run, who is so short he could disappear into a herd of ponies, emerged from a tight spot between horses Sept. 14 to win a nine-furlong, second-level grass allowance at Churchill. Yamato, second in that race, returned to win the $100,000 Japan Turf Cup at Laurel Park, while third-place English Tavern went on to win a Keeneland grass race at the same allowance class.

Red Run ran back at Keeneland and traveled sweetly in the Sycamore, simply finding the 1 1/2-mile distance farther than he prefers and fading slightly late to finish fourth of 12. Back at a better trip, he can beat Rockemperor and the rest of his River City rivals at a fair price.

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Dream Supreme Stakes

At first blush, it looked more like Wicked Halo had lost the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes last month at Keeneland more than Yuugiri had won the race. Wicked Halo had gotten a perfect stalking trip, pouncing on Yuugiri in upper stretch and assuming command at the stretch call. But rather than going clear, Wicked Halo shifted to neutral. Yuugiri came back on her inside and won a tight photo.

The loss looked better, however, when Yuugiri came back to finish second – albeit a distant second – last weekend in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Nonetheless, bettors should think twice about taking Wicked Halo at odds-on Saturday in the $300,000 Dream Supreme. The filly has not looked like the same horse in her last three starts that she was late in 2022 and earlier this year.

Little Prankster will be the strong second choice, but rail-drawn Your So Sillea had a terrible trip in her most recent start and could wire this field if she breaks sharply.

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