Red Mile: Sunday 10/6 Pick Four Analysis
Red Mile All-Stakes Pick 4 Analysis
The final card of Grand Circuit racing at the Red Mile features five stakes races with four of them in the Pick 4. The early forecast calls for a 50% chance of early showers and afternoon thunderstorms, so pay attention to the conditions before wagering because this track plays much differently when too much water falls from the sky onto the clay surface.
Race 5 - $270,000 Tattersalls
It is difficult to look at this division of the Tattersalls for 3-year-old pacers and not come away thinking (3) SOUTHWIND OZZI is going to win. He’s riding a four-race winning streak and his only defeat on the program came when he had a bad post on a half-mile track while chasing slow fractions. Could he lose? Yes, it’s possible, but it seems unlikely.
Race 6 - $267,000 Kentucky Filly Futurity
(4) WHEN DOVESCRY is clearly the filly to beat in here and trainer Rene Allard admitted after winning the Hambletonian Oaks that this is the next race he really wanted to win with her. As alternate options, (2) THE ICE DUTCHESS and (9) BEAUTIFUL SIN both made nice improvements last week with Lasix added and either could step up again.
Race 7 - $270,000 Tattersalls
While (6) BETTOR’S WISH has been the most consistent in this group, I do believe there is enough talent in the field to pull off the upset and make what could be a chalky Pick 4 somewhat profitable. (5) CAPTAIN CRUNCH raced well after missing a few weeks of action and I’m willing to believe in him one more time before jumping ship. The talent is there! (2) AMERICAN MERCURY hasn’t tossed in a bad race all year and he should be tracking one of the favorites or setting the pace. He kicked home in 25 3/5 last week.
Race 8 - $450,000 Kentucky Futurity
If the track is fast or anything close, (4) GREENSHOE will likely prove his dominance in what will be one of the final races of his career. If the rains fall more heavily, the door opens slightly for another horse to pull off an upset as the surface gets deeper and levels the playing field in terms of pure speed. Horses I would consider adding to the ticket if the track is sloppy include: (1) CHIN CHIN HALL; (3) SUPER SCHISSEL; (5) DON’T LET’EM (adding trotting hobbles, too); (6) GIMPANZEE.
$1 Pick 4 Ticket (fast/good):
3 / 2,4,9 / 2,5 / 4 = $6
$1 Pick 4 Ticket (sloppy):
3 / 2,4,9 / 2,5,6 / 1,3,5,6 = $36