Red Mile: Sunday $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Analysis

Nine stakes events highlight a spectacular 12-race card at The Red Mile on Sunday where the best 3-year-olds and older foes will be in action. In addition to a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 which includes the two richest races -- Kentucky Futurity and Kentucky Filly Futurity -- of the afternoon, the top five horses in the country will be competing. Let's dig into the Pick 4:

Race 7 -- 3-Year-Old Open
We live in a new world now where the ability level of Ohio-breds has climbed to Grand Circuit quality. We already saw Ohio champion It's Academic knock three seconds off her career best last week over this track and the undefeated-in-2020 (7) GUINEVERE HALL seems poised to follow in his footsteps. She has routinely won from tough spots in Ohio and other than possibly (6) SPOILED PRINCESS, there aren't many scary foes in this field.

Race 8 - $255,000 Kentucky Filly Futurity
This full field of 12 will be competing over what is expected to be a messy track with heavy rain in the forecast. The clay at The Red Mile doesn't take as well as normal tracks to rain, so this could be a messy affair with a packed field. Because of that, as well as other reasons, I'm pitching the likely favorites, including Hambletonian winner Ramona Hill. If she wins at a low price, so be it. I'm also pitching Sorella because her best races have been barefoot and that seems unlikely to happen on a sloppy track.
I'll go three deep with (2) NEXT LEVEL STUFF, who seems to have found her best game in recent weeks for a hot barn, (7) LOVE A GOOD STORY, who was raced ultra-conservatively last time and charged home, and (10) HYPNOTIC AM, who probably should've won a week ago but her driver either forgot or neglected to pull the ear plugs until it was too late.

Race 9 - $444,000 Kentucky Futurity
This is another bulky field and I'll be using one-third of them. (11) READY FOR MONI is clearly the horse to beat despite the break last time out, but the second tier certainly hurts his chances more than it helps. At least the horses in front of him have some early speed. (4) BACK OF THE NECK took time off and came back with a career-best mile last Sunday. From a good post here, he is my top pick. (2) KING ALPHONSO is one of seven from the Ake Svanstedt stable entered. Normally he'd be a pitch in this race, but he's been racing reasonably well of late and keeps up regardless of the speed. He's the type who can sit close on an off-track and surprise, though our price took a hit when Svanstedt listed Tim Tetrick to drive. (7) CHESTNUT HILL is a tricky horse to read who could gobble up the field late if he behaves.

Race 10 -- Non-winners 4 or $50,000 life
(1) MCFREELY won in this class last week and clearly needs to be included on your tickets. (5) NO QUARTER blew out a fast mile last time and could be odds-on. That said, a sloppy track will level the playing field in terms of time. (6) ROCKNONTHESEAS is a one-run closer who could easily blow by these in the lane.

$1 Ticket: 7 / 2,7,10 / 2,4,7,11 / 1,5,6 = $36