Red Mile: Saturday 10/5 Pick Four Analysis

A strong 10-race card loaded with stakes races highlights day seven of the Grand Circuit meet at Red Mile. This is an interesting sequence with many contenders. I’m playing a bigger ticket than normal while putting my faith in one single and looking for some solid price plays along the way. If all goes to plan we should be cashing a very nice ticket, but even if the favorites click the return will cover the costs.
Race 7 – Allerage Farms Open Pace
This a great race where a number of horses could break through with a win. (2) COURTLY CHOICE missed a week due to sickness but once again lands in an inside post on a bigger track. I’d love to see ‘brush and crush’ tactics here. (9) DONTTELLMEAGAIN keeps racing well from outside posts and the switch to the Red Mile should give him the fighting chance he lacked at Dayton last time. (6) GEEZ JOE showed once again that he is fast enough with a 1:47 4/5 win at Hoosier last time. The price will be right and he is more than capable. (4) MCWICKED is a horse I usually toss but he raced big last time despite a foot issue. This surface should help with that problem.
Race 8 – Allerage Farms Open Trot
Here’s my single and it is (7) SIX PACK. He’s run into some bad luck with sickness and poor posts, but he’s on a track where he trotted an amazing 1:49 1/5 winning last year and I’m looking at him coming up with a huge mile. For those looking for backup plans, (2) LINDY THE GREAT, (3) CRYSTAL FASHION and (4) EUROBOND seem like the logical players.
Race 9 – Glen Garnsey Memorial
There is no doubt that (3) WARRAWEE UBEAUT is the filly to beat in this field, but we have to consider whether two heats in the Jugette took anything out of her. (7) TALL DRINK HANOVER gets my top call off an effort most people will look down on, but she was used very hard in that race after missing three weeks of action. A strong mile is likely. (1) QUEEN OF THE PRIDE was locked in and closed well when clear last week. She’s a player with a clean trip. More fringe players but very capable, (5) SYLPH HANOVER charged home last time from an impossible spot and perhaps she is moving in the right direction now, and (9) TREACHEROUS REIGN went a huge first-over mile last time but the price will shrink here.
Race 10 – Late Closer
Many of these horses raced against each other last week. First and second-place finishers (4) KENZIESKY HANOVER and (5) SPECIAL HONOR certainly figure once again. (2) GOBI PRINCESS drops out of stakes action and should pick up her game. (7) SUPERGIRL RILEY was left with too much to do against the top pair last time and should have a better shot here with her nose on the gait.
$1 Pick 4 Ticket:
2,4,6,9 / 7 / 1,3,5,7,9 / 2,4,5,7 = $80