In Reality matches Chance It, Liam's Lucky Charm for a third time

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – It may not quite be Yankees-Red Sox or Giants-Dodgers, but in the little corner of the world where the Florida Sire Stakes series still draws plenty of attention, Saturday’s rubber match between Chance It and Liam’s Lucky Charm is a bit of a big deal.

Chance It and Liam’s Lucky Charm will take center stage when they square off for the third time in eight weeks in the $400,000 In Reality Stakes, which shares top billing on Saturday’s 14-race program at Gulfstream Park with its filly counterpart, the $400,000 My Dear Girl Stakes. The finales of the Florida Sire Stakes series for 2-year-olds, which had its inaugural running in 1982 at Calder Race Course, are the richest of eight stakes on a card that also includes the $150,000 Wildcat Heir for Florida-bred 3-year-olds and up, featuring a strong field that includes 2018 In Reality winner Well Defined.

Chance It drew first blood in his personal duel with Liam’s Lucky Charm here this summer with an easy 3 1/4-length victory in the six-furlong Dr. Fager. Liam’s Lucky Charm came back with a hard-fought head decision over his nemesis four weeks later in the seven-furlong Affirmed.

On Saturday, both wade into uncharted waters when they stretch to 1 1/16 miles for the first time in the tradition-rich In Reality, whose roster of past winners includes Holy Bull, Smile, and Big Drama.

Despite failing as the 3-10 favorite in the Affirmed, Chance It is likely to be favored again Saturday. The son of Currency Swap has proven a model of consistency from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, having earned a 91 in his last three starts. And as his trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. explains, he did have a little setback going into the Affirmed.

“He backed off his feed a little about 10 days before his last start, and I didn’t get to work him the Sunday before the race as I normally would,” Joseph said. “At that point, we weren’t even sure we’d be able to make the race. But I was able to work him Wednesday, so we decided to take a chance. And we got beat fair and square. Normally, I would have said the race our horse ran would have been good enough, but he got beat by a very good horse. I’m not making any excuses.”

Obviously, Joseph is somewhat concerned about the added distance, although he believes Chance It will handle it just fine.

“Any time you do something for the first time, there’s always a question,” Joseph said. “But his pedigree says he should handle more distance, especially on the dam’s side. And he acts like a horse who’ll be able to go further with his high cruising speed.”

Chance It is well drawn for his two-turn bow, breaking from post 3 with Tyler Gaffalione to be aboard for the first time.

Trainer Ralph Nicks sends out Liam’s Lucky Charm looking to win the In Reality for the second time in the last three years, having turned the trick in 2017 with the odds-on Soutache. He sent out Garter and Tie to finish a distant second a year ago behind Well Defined. And like his colleague, he has nothing but good things to say about his opponent.

“I have the utmost respect for Chance It,” Nicks said. “It’s really a shame these two had to come along in the same year, probably. But my horse showed a lot of guts last time. He never quit. He maintained his pace and kept running.”

Nicks also is confident Liam’s Lucky Charm will be able to handle the 1 1/16 miles.

“I think two turns is well within his grasp,” he said. “I think it will be beneficial to him, if anything. I think he’s been asking for distance. I’ve said that all along. We’ll see what happens Saturday.”

Liam’s Lucky Charm was not quite as fortunate as Chance It at the post position draw. He’ll break from post 8, which can be problematic in races at 1 1/16 miles with a short run to the first turn here.

On paper, it is hard to make a case that any of the other eight 2-year-olds in the field might threaten the two favorites.

Nicks also sends out the maiden Shivaree. Trainer Angel Rodriguez will send out two starters – Rebelde, who finished a distant third in the Affirmed, and Rosas Way.

“I think the extra distance will help both my horses, although the two favorites are very, very nice horses,” Rodriguez said.

Arindel Farm will have two homebreds in the mix – last-out maiden winners Poe and Genghis. Both are sons of Brethren, and they are trained by Stanley Gold and Juan Alvarado, respectively.