Rainbow pick six pool expected to push $10 million for mandatory payout

ARCADIA, Calif. – A pot of gold is up for grabs Saturday in the 20-cent Rainbow pick six at Santa Anita.

The entire Rainbow jackpot, more than $1.4 million through last weekend, will be paid out in Saturday’s mandatory disbursement. With new wagers of $8 million or more expected, the gross pool should be in the neighborhood of $10 million.

This assumes no single-ticket winners Thursday or Friday. The Rainbow jackpot is paid under two conditions – either a single-ticket winner or a mandatory payout. Through Sunday, the 20th day of racing at the winter meet, there were no single-ticket winners.

While mandatory payouts generate large pools, winning payoffs fluctuate. Santa Anita’s most recent mandatory payout was Nov. 4, closing day of the 2018 fall meet. A $1.1 million jackpot attracted $6.7 million in new wagers. Favorites won five of six, and the payoff was $601.

The primary benefit to mandatory payouts that combine with jackpots is a dramatic reduction in wagering cost (effective takeout). On the Nov. 4 mandatory payout, more than 93 cents of every dollar wagered was returned to winning bettors. On a normal daily basis, less than 54 cents of every dollar wagered in the Rainbow pick six is returned to winning bettors. This is due to the 23.68 percent takeout, with 30 percent of the net pool funneled into the jackpot.

The jackpot is big Saturday; the mandatory payout creates an appealing opportunity. The track is expected to be wet; no turf races are scheduled. Below is a look at the sequence, on races 5-10.

Race 5

Second-time starter One Bad Boy (8) and habitual runner-up Omaha Beach (5) are A’s in this maiden special weight for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs. One Bad Boy finished third with a compromised trip from the rail in his debut, worked well since, and drew outside. Omaha Beach is more than just a hanging maiden. He lost two photos to next-out turf stakes winners, and last out finished eight clear of third in his first try on dirt.

For a B ticket backup, Mo Reserve (9) rates an upset chance turning back in distance.

Race 6, Robert B. Lewis

Six entered, three have legitimate shots in this Grade 3 at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds. Gunmetal Gray (4) won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes last out and is bred for a wet track; Nolo Contesto (6) scored a better-than-it-looked maiden win last out over race 5 contender Omaha Beach; program favorite Mucho Gusto (5) will set the pace. All three are A contenders, no backups.

Race 7

This 5 1/2-furlong, $30,000 maiden-claiming race for 3-year-olds is dicey, with two A contenders. They are second-time starter Toby Time (5), who drops and adds blinkers following a debut prep, and first-time starter Camzul (2), who worked fast and is the first runner from a dam that romped first out on a sloppy track at Fair Grounds.

B contenders include career maiden Calder Vale (3), whose best race was his only start on wet, second-time starter Ministersdon’tlie (6), bred-for-mud firster Blue Skye Jade (7), and route-to-sprint R B Eye (9).

Race 8

My Mandate (5) is the horse to beat in this 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for 3-year-olds originally scheduled for turf. He missed by a nose last out on turf, he also handles dirt. Scalper (3) regressed second out, but his dam won her first two wet-track starts by open lengths in South America and Florida. Those two are A’s.

First-time starters Whitehouse Road (6), C Falls (7), and Young Phillip (9) are B contenders along with four-start maiden Norski (8).

Race 9, San Pasqual Stakes

McKinzie (7) and Battle of Midway (8) are logical A principals in this Grade 2 at 1 1/8 miles for 4-year-olds and up. B contenders are numerous. To keep a ticket affordable, B’s are Dabster (3) and Giant Expectations (5).

Race 10

Class-dropper Cayate (10) appears the most probable winner on the card and an A single in a 5 1/2-furlong, $12,500 claiming race for nonwinners of two. This class level is usually won by droppers or last-start maiden-claiming winners. Cayate fits the bill.

Marginal contenders would include first-off-the-claim Candyman Garret (1), shipper Das Bear (4) and trainer-switch Giddymeister (9). Due to budget constraints, bettors might need to sink or swim with Cayate as a no-backup single.