Rain could impact three turf stakes

The 10 fillies and mares entered in Saturday’s $275,000 Anchorage Stakes at Churchill Downs have made their most recent starts at seven different tracks – on turf, dirt, and synthetic surfaces. Hence, it’s not so strange to see Vive Veuve, coming off a stakes win on dirt, as the morning-line favorite for this 1 1/8-mile turf race over Pin Up Betty, the defending winner looking to regain her best form.

Pin Up Betty won last year’s Grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill for Mike Maker and continued to show an affinity for this course winning the 2025 Anchorage. She is winless since, including in three starts this year.

One of the keys to handicapping this race is whether one believes Pin Up Betty has lost a step at age 5, or whether one can excuse her recent losses. She was fifth, beaten just two lengths, in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in her first start off a winter break, then third in the Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. The top two in that race, Classic Q and Portfolio Duration, emerged to win Grade 1s at Saratoga.

In this year’s Mint Julep, Pin Up Betty was perhaps victimized by a lack of early targets when front-runners Stylish Sue and Charlene’s Dream both scratched. Pin Up Betty was forced to sit closer than normal in second and faded to seventh.

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Stylish Sue is entered again Saturday and is the most likely pacesetter, with perhaps Tirupati and longshot Footnote pressing her. Vive Veuve would like to be in the second flight behind her Joe Sharp-trained stablemate Stylish Sue. The most intriguing thing about the favored mare may be her surface versatility. Although she is a Grade 2-placed stakes winner on turf, her most recent start was a victory in the off-turf Ouija Board Distaff on a fast dirt track at Lone Star.

There is a strong possibility of rain in Louisville on both Friday and Saturday. Although Churchill’s turf course has handled precipitation well this spring, the chance of some give in the course, or the more unlikely possibility of the stakes being rained off, must be considered. Not only has Vive Veuve won on the dirt, but her most recent trip on yielding turf resulted in a third in the Grade 3 Dowager at Keeneland last fall.

Tirupati is cross-entered in the Lady Canterbury on Saturday, but trainer Jonathan Thomas said he is leaning toward running in Kentucky. Tirupati was a front-running winner with an honest pace in the Grade 3 Wilshire in March 2025 at Santa Anita. This year, she returned from a layoff of more than a year to finish fifth in the Grade 3 Monrovia at 6 1/2 furlongs, then an improved fourth in the Grade 3 Royal Heroine at a mile.

“We sprinted her off the break, not thinking she’s a sprinter, just get a run under her belt,” Thomas said. “Then got hemmed up [last time]. With a good trip and maybe being a little bit more forward, we could improve off that.”

Warming spent time racing in California last year for Graham Motion, finishing third, beaten less than a length, in the Grade 3 John C. Harris sprinting before winning the Grade 3 Autumn Miss at a mile. A few forays on dirt and synthetic surfaces followed, but returning to her preferred surface, Warming overcame a bump near the three-sixteenths pole to win with a powerful late surge in the Grade 3 Gallorette at Laurel.

“I love that she’s drawn in the one-hole,” Motion said. “I think she has a very good turn of foot if things set up for her, but she’s not a complicated filly to ride. She’s pretty straightforward, I think. I’m going to leave it to [jockey John Velazquez]. I’m sure he’s going to want to get her to settle like she did in the Gallorette because she does have sort of that explosive kick. So hopefully there’s a bit of pace in there, but I think she’ll lay close as well. She doesn’t have to be far out of it, really. She had enough speed to run down the hill well in California and also break her maiden going six furlongs as a 2-year-old.”

Motion did not appear concerned by the forecast, although he did say Warming would likely not run if the race did come off the turf.

“That course just seems to handle the rain so well. I wouldn’t be overly concerned by it,” he said.

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American Derby

Churchill’s Saturday card also has a pair of 3-year-old turf stakes in the $275,000 American Derby at 1 1/16 miles and its sister race, the $275,000 Tepin Stakes at a mile.

While these races were, theoretically, preceded by local preps last month in the 1 1/8-mile Audubon Stakes and Grade 3 Regret at 1 1/16 miles, the cutback in distance, plus the looming Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks – both Grade 1 races at 1 1/8 miles on July 4 – for this division means a largely new cast will line up for both races.

American Derby entrants Alpyland and Immortalised were one-two in the Grade 3 Penn Mile on May 29, with stakes winner Thousandsticks fourth that night after setting the pace. That was the third career stakes win for Alpyland – including one on turf labeled “good” – who went to Pennsylvania off a creditable fourth in the Grade 1 American Turf at Churchill Downs behind divisional standouts Stark Contrast and Remember Mamba. Honey Dutch, third that day, was third in the Penn Mile.

Bust Out won the Cinema at Santa Anita last time out, with all three of his turf starts coming on firm courses.

There are those with good dirt form in this field in Grade 3-placed stakes winner Comport and stakes winner Fulmine.

Tepin

Later on the card, the Tepin marks the season debut for Ground Support. The filly won her first two starts, including the Grade 2 Miss Grillo, before finishing a creditable third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. This is her first start in nearly eight months.

Final Accord, ninth in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, had a sprint run off her layoff and improved at a mile last out, finishing second in the Penn Oaks.

Tam Tam, winner of the Sanibel Island earlier this year, has been running strongly through this spring season in Kentucky, beaten a head in the Grade 2 Edgewood at Churchill before finishing third in the Regret.

How About Now and Faye’s Gold were one-two in the Cleopatra at Indiana, with Faye’s Gold coming back for a Churchill allowance win.

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