Rain could dampen Arzak's prospects in Shakertown
?q=100)
LEXINGTON, Ky. – The Grade 2, $400,000 Shakertown Stakes, now set for Tuesday at Keeneland, is a tale of two races.
If the race is able to remain at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf, as scheduled, the headliners include defending winner Arzak, who loves this Keeneland turf course. If the turf course is still too waterlogged for use Tuesday, the field of 11 would likely see several scratches – including Arzak, who trainer Michael Trombetta said in a text last week would not run on the main track. Chief candidates would then include main-track sprint specialist Valentine Candy, supplemented to the field as the stormy forecast developed.
Lexington’s flood warning was to be lifted Sunday evening following four straight days of heavy rain across Kentucky. It is unclear how much opportunity the turf course – or main track, for that matter – will be able to dry out before Tuesday’s rescheduled blockbuster card. Monday and Tuesday are forecast as mostly sunny with highs of 57 and 46, respectively, and unseasonably cold weather overnight.
Valentine Candy, supplemented to this race for $6,000, is a six-time stakes winner on the main track for Steve Asmussen. Crucially, those wins include the Ozark on a muddy track last February at Oaklawn. The millionaire would be making his 4-year-old debut, as he was last seen winning the Steel Valley Sprint in November at Mahoning Valley.
Arzak, the other millionaire in the entries, would be making his 7-year-old debut. He was last seen finishing second to Coppola, whom he would face again here, by three-quarters of a length in the Janus in December at Gulfstream. A five-time stakes winner, Arzak loves Keeneland, winning the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes in fall 2023 and the Shakertown last April on a course rated good. He also finished third in last fall’s Woodford.
Late-running Arzak needs pace. Coppola is chief among the front-runners in this field. He is joined by the rail-drawn Run Carson, coming off a fine effort on Turfway Park’s Tapeta in which he was third behind Howard Wolowitz; the pace-prompting No Nay Hudson, seeking his first win since 2023; and longshot Petcoff.
Coppola got the widest draw of the front-runners in post 10 of 11, but he may simply be fast enough to clear the group and avoid getting hung wide. He comes off two straight wins in Florida, the Janus and Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint, in which he sizzled the opening half-miles in 43.26 seconds and 42.67, respectively.
“He’s a fast son of a gun,” trainer Dale Romans told Gulfstream’s press office. “They go 42, I think that’s the fastest any horse of mine has ever gone in my life, and I’ve run a lot of horses.”
Coppola’s five stakes wins include one on dirt. Last July at Horseshoe Indianapolis, he won an off-the-turf edition of the William Garrett Handicap on a sloppy track.
Rogue Lightning, who attracted reigning Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat for his first start in the United States, most recently won the Dukhan Sprint on turf rated good in Qatar. Last year, on good-soft ground at York, he was beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Starlust in the City Walls Stakes. Starlust went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and is one of several top-level European foes Rogue Lightning has faced.
Our Shot, second to Arzak in the 2023 Woodford, defeated him in last fall’s edition. Eamonn, third to Arzak in the 2024 Shakertown, comes off a win in the Silks Run at Gulfstream, which was absent regional leader Coppola. Hawthorne stakes winner Mischievous Rogue and Think Big, making his stakes debut, complete the field.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.