Rain clouds handicapping for Churchill allowances

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Get them there early, keep them there late.

That’s one way of looking at the layout of the Thursday program at Churchill Downs, where a five-day week gets under way at 5 p.m. Eastern. A $148,000 allowance opens an eight-race card, and a $127,000 allowance anchors the back end as race 7.

Both co-features are penciled in for the turf – although there’s a 60 to 90 percent chance of rain in the long-range local forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, meaning both races might be moved to the main track.

Churchill management has proceeded carefully with the $10 million turf course being used for the first time this spring, with the latest example coming Sunday, when both scheduled turf races were moved to the dirt. When turf racing is permitted this week, the temporary rail will be stationed 36 feet out from the permanent inner rail, limiting fields to a maximum of 10 starters in an effort to preserve the inside lanes.

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Churchill will host twilight racing every Thursday through the end of the 44-day spring meet, July 4, with food and drink specials designed to entice a young-ish ontrack crowd meeting up with friends after work. The last few races go under the lights, including the last at 8:23.

Racing will be held here Monday, normally a dark day, because of the Memorial Day holiday.

Race 1

The outcome of this classified allowance hinges largely on whether the rains come as predicted. Eight older horses – all but three of them graded stakes winners – are entered under conditions – non-winners of two at a mile or over on turf since Jan. 1, 2021 – that make for very interesting handicapping, regardless of which surface the race is run over. Either way, it will be run at 1 1/16 miles.

Over turf, Admissions Office and Henley’s Joy would merit favoritism. On dirt, it would be Sprawl and the two main-track-only designates, Pirate’s Punch and Silver Dust.

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Admission Office, winner of the Grade 3 Louisville here in June 2020, is returning from a 15-month layoff as a first-time gelding for trainer Brian Lynch. The 7-year-old Amerman homebred kept top-class company when at his peak, so the obvious question is how soon he’ll be able to return to form.

Henley’s Joy, now 6, won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby in July 2019 and has gone on to amass earnings of more than $1.1 million.

Sprawl won the Grade 3 West Virginia Governors last summer. Pirate’s Punch won the Grade 3 Salvator Mile in 2020 at Monmouth Park, while Silver Dust, now 8, captured the Grade 3 Ben Ali in April 2021 over the Keeneland slop.

Race 7

The 10-horse maximum will be invoked for this first-level allowance scheduled for 1 3/8 miles on the turf, with 13 fillies and mares having entered. Scarabea, exiting a decent fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, surely would attract attention if the race stays on turf, as would the Irish-bred Ensemble, but if it’s transferred, then High Fashion moves way up for Vicki Oliver as main track only.

This race goes at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles if run on the dirt.