Quiet card could have hidden value
?q=100)
DEL MAR, Calif. – It’s all about wagering on Friday at Del Mar.
First post is 3 p.m. for a mundane card with four maiden-claiming races, three claiming or starter races for winners, and a maiden turf sprint for 2-year-olds. Quality aside, handicappers will seek the same objective as always – parimutuel nuggets.
Race 1 is a $50,000 maiden-claiming turf mile for California-bred fillies and mares. Goatski could be loose on the lead, but she is no cinch in her third start of the meet after backing up in two routes against slightly better. Two turns is a challenge for Goatski, the most likely winner.
Based on DRF Formulator, stretch-out Honey Jo merits an upset chance in her third start and first route. Maiden stretch-outs on turf is a profitable niche for trainer Peter Eurton. The past five years, he is 10 for 44 while producing a $3.96 return per $2 win wager.
Race 2 is a $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares on dirt. Florida shipper Emirates Affair is obvious, having won four of her last six. But what to do with local veteran Carmen Miranda? She once was good enough, but she has not raced in more than a year.
The layoff is not a major concern based on trainer John Sadler’s record with dirt sprinters off a year or more – Sadler has won with 5 of his last 13 according to Formulator. Emirates Affair is the horse to beat, but comebacker Carmen Miranda figures as a contender.
Race 3 is a turf sprint for maiden 2-year-olds, and last-out runner-up Arkadelphia will be well-backed. But a first-time starter with a win-early pedigree commands attention. He is Saturday, a Ghostzapper colt trained by Ryan Hanson with modest works for his debut.
Although debut progeny of Ghostzapper have won at just 10 percent (11 percent is average), Saturday’s dam, Starlight Tiara, has produced three debut winners from six runners. Two others finished second. Hanson-trained debut maidens occasionally outrun their odds. Saturday might be another example.
Race 6 is a $32,000 maiden-claiming sprint for 2-year-olds. One Step Beyond can make amends after his fourth-place finish as the favorite in a $20,000 maiden-claiming sprint for statebreds.
One Step Beyond was shuffled on the backstretch, and checked on the turn in that race. Few horses overcome that much trouble, particularly maiden-claiming 2-year-olds. The gelding was claimed for by Jorge Periban.
Based on his runner-up finish two starts back and better-than-looked fourth last out, One Step Beyond should mow them down on Friday. Do closers win at 5 1/2 furlongs? Yes, they do. Through last weekend, eight of the last 15 races at the distance were won by horses that rallied from fourth position or farther back.
Geovanni Franco rides One Step Beyond, whose chief rivals include second-time starters My Man Huey and Guillermo.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.