Prospective Kentucky Derby field dwindles after dominating performances

The dominating victories last weekend by Tiz the Law and Art Collector further strengthened their position at the top of the list of candidates for the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs, and several of those left in their wake are now seeking other options. They’ve seen enough. Combined with the attrition rate for this Derby owing to its postponement by four months, there is the very real possibility fewer than the maximum 20 horses could enter the Derby, which has not happened since 2003.

The 2003 Derby was won by Funny Cide, like Tiz the Law a New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg and owned by Sackatoga Stable. But while Funny Cide was a 12-1 shot – the eighth choice in a field of 16 following one scratch from the original field of 17 – Tiz the Law is shaping up as the shortest-priced favorite in years. He closed at even-money on Sunday night in the final Derby future wager, which means those making that bet are convinced he will be less than that on Derby Day and are willing to take the risk inherent in a future wager – no refund if he doesn’t start – to lock in that short price.

:: Click to learn about our DRF's Free Past Performance program.

It has been nearly 20 years, since Point Given went off at 9-5 against 16 rivals in 2001, that a Derby favorite was less than 2-1. The last Derby favorite who was odds-on was Arazi, sent off at 9-10 in 1992 in an 18-horse field that had just 11 betting interests owing to one coupled entry and a seven-horse mutuel field, back when the tote system was only set up to handle a maximum of 12 betting interests. That was finally modernized in 2001. Since then, there have been a maximum of 20 betting interests to match the maximum of 20 runners.

There have been fewer than 20 runners in the Derby field seven times since 2003 – including last year, when 19 ran – but only because of scratches after at least 20 were entered in the race.

Tiz the Law earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 109 for his dominating, 5 1/2-length victory in the Runhappy Travers on Saturday at Saratoga. Caracaro, the runner-up, and Max Player, who was third, are the only others exiting that race who remain under consideration for the Derby. Country Grammer, Shivaree, South Bend, and Uncle Chuck will all find more suitable spots.

Art Collector got a Beyer of 100 on Sunday when winning by 3 1/4 lengths in the Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, making him 4 for 4 this year. As of Monday, only Attachment Rate and Necker Island, second and third, respectively, in the Ellis Park Derby, remained under serious consideration for the Derby. Shared Sense is still in, but is far from certain.

Country Grammer, Shivaree, and Anneau d’Or, who was eighth in the Ellis Park Derby, all are in the top 20 for points earned on Road to the Kentucky Derby, utilized by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field if more than 20 enter. Also currently in the top 20 on points are Dr Post, who is not certain to run, and the filly Swiss Skydiver, whom trainer Kenny McPeek has said is intended for the Kentucky Oaks after her scheduled start this Saturday in the Alabama at Saratoga.

Storm the Court, currently 17th on the points list, remains under consideration after finishing second in the La Jolla Handicap in his turf debut on Sunday at Del Mar, trainer Pete Eurton said, but he too is far from certain.

And there are no contenders coming this year from Europe or Japan on the separate Derby roads Churchill Downs has created for runners in those locales.

There is only one points-scoring race remaining, the Pegasus Stakes on Saturday at Monmouth Park, but that is not expected to attract any top-flight Derby prospects, because it is only three weeks out from the Derby, is at 1 1/16 miles, and offers just 34 points overall (20-8-4-2). Pneumatic, currently 22nd on the points list, is set for the Pegasus after working a half-mile in 50.56 seconds on Sunday at Saratoga. Joe Bravo has the mount, trainer Steve Asmussen said via text Monday.

Finnick the Fierce (21st) is still in, but Dean Martini (23rd on the list) is out after finishing sixth in the Ellis Park Derby, and few below him, even with a handful of points, are even under consideration for the race. There are a few horses with no points – Happy Saver, Money Moves, and Shirl’s Speight – whose connections are monitoring developments, as they could get in if fewer than 20 with points enter. But none appear eager to take on top-shelf favorites in a large field while giving away plenty of experience, so they too are far from certain unless something unforeseen happens regarding the leading contenders.

–additional reporting by Steve Andersen, David Grening, and Marty McGee