Promises Fulfilled, Firenze Fire look to avoid bounce in Jerkens Memorial

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – Proponents of the popular bounce theory of handicapping will have their philosophy put to the acid test Saturday at Saratoga in the $500,000 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial.

Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire enter the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens off far and away the best performances of their careers both perceptually and from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. And those who hold true to the concept of the bounce will argue vehemently that the two horses are certain to regress off their last starts.

Promises Fulfilled exits a spectacular effort in the Grade 3 Amsterdam, a 3 1/4-length victory for which he received a 108 Beyer, 22 points higher than in his previous start when finishing third in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens nearly two months earlier at Belmont Park.

Promises Fulfilled’s detractors will point to the fact that the speedy son of Shackleford regressed from a then-career-best 96 Beyer for his victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth last winter at Gulfstream Park to a 47 four weeks later in the Florida Derby. But trainer Dale Romans, while cognizant of the bounce, remains confident Promises Fulfilled will run every bit as good in the seven-furlong Allen Jerkens as he did in winning the Amsterdam four weeks ago.

“His last race was phenomenal, and I think he can repeat it,” Romans said. “He’s doing too well right now for me to worry about it. And there’s nothing you can do about it anyway. He ran big last time, and hopefully he’s going to run big again this time, too.”

Promises Fulfilled drew the rail in the field of nine 3-year-olds entered for the Allen Jerkens, and Romans expects to see him on the lead under jockey Luis Saez.

“We’re committed to go from down there, but there’s no one faster than him anyway. Nobody’s going to come out of there any quicker than he will,” Romans said.

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Promises Fulfilled is one of two horses Romans will start in the Allen Jerkens, along with the rapidly improving Seven Trumpets, who finished a distant second behind Firenze Fire in the Dwyer.

“I’ve always had high hopes for this horse, but the light switch really went off after that last race,” Romans said. “He just keeps improving, and he’s been training like a monster up here. He worked [in] 58 [seconds] and change a couple of weeks ago, and [exercise rider Tammy Fox] couldn’t pull him up afterwards.”

Trainer Jason Servis admits he fears two things in the Jerkens – the possibility that Firenze Fire could bounce off the 107 Beyer he earned for his nine-length win in the Dwyer and Promises Fulfilled.

“Coming off a 107 Beyer worries me a little heading into this race,” Servis said. “But he’s had seven weeks. He’s in good flesh. Irad breezed him Sunday and said everything is a go. Promises Fulfilled is going to be tough to catch if he repeats that last race, but he’s only had four weeks between starts, so maybe that will work in our favor on Saturday.”

Should the two favorites fail to run back to their most recent races, Engage or Still Having Fun appear the most logical options.

Engage finished a distant second as the even-money favorite behind Promises Fulfilled in the Amsterdam but did encounter trouble at the start that may have compromised his chances that day. Trained by Chad Brown, Engage has yet to finish worse than second in seven career starts, although he has yet to win a race beyond six furlongs.

Still Having Fun lit up the tote board when rallying off a rapid pace to upset the Woody Stephens by 1 1/4 lengths at odds of 13-1 for trainer Timothy Keefe. The race was the first outside of Maryland for the son of Old Fashioned who has continued to work bullets at Laurel in preparation for his local bow.

Gidu is the most intriguing member of the field, making his first start on dirt after launching his career with seven races on the grass. A two-time stakes winner trained by Todd Pletcher, Gidu turns back in distance after setting the pace through midstretch and finishing a tiring fourth over boggy ground in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Hall of Fame here earlier this month.