Preview: Which juvenile will step up?
Wednesday, Sept. 3, preview
Om is considered by many to be the top juvenile male out West. A setback, however, prevents him from trying to prove it in Wednesday’s Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.
Favoritism figures to fall to SKYWAY, who shipped in with Mark Casse’s string to capture the Grade 2 Best Pal in impressive fashion here Aug. 3. He’s 2 for 2 on Polytrack and has ample speed but showed in the Best Pal that he can stalk, finish, and pass horses.
As nice as that win was, the Beyer Speed Figure didn’t come back all that strong (80). Oh, it’s still tied as the top figure in the field (maiden IRON FIST earned an 80 when second to Om here Aug. 9), meaning Skyway may be vulnerable. HENRY’S HOLIDAY, for example, ran on well for second to SKYWAY in the Best Pal and should appreciate the added half-furlong.
But maybe the prime danger hasn’t run here at all or ever tried synthetic. HOLIDAY CAMP was no secret for his debut at Santa Anita on June 7. He’s by multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter and crack sire in Street Boss, and his connections paid a hefty price for him at auction ($700,000). Then there’s the fact that he hails from the Bob Baffert barn, and once the 2-year-old season gets under way, all eyes out West turn to Baffert. So, it was no shock when he was sent off at 9-10 in that debut, and less of a shock that he won easily.
What was a shock is that he came back in the Santa Anita Juvenile on June 22 but, as the even-money favorite, stalked the pace and gave way, finishing last of six.
Baffert has given him plenty of time to regroup, and it’s most encouraging not only to see strong works recently (which help alleviate the concern that he’s never raced on synthetic) but that Baffert feels good enough about him to toss him into a tough spot like this.
DOES ‘RENEE’ GET A FREE PASS?
RENEESGOTZIP hadn’t run in more than nine months when, after a series of strong works, she returned in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo here Aug. 17, a race she had dominated in 2013. She had rehearsed so well and had run so big before off the bench that she was made the 4-5 favorite despite the presence of Judy the Beauty, one of the game’s elite distaff sprinters and a gal who absolutely adores Polytrack.
Reneesgotzip pressed the pace, loomed a threat into the lane, but couldn’t keep pace not only with big winner Judy the Beauty but also with Madame Cactus, fading to third for an 85 Beyer.
The question for players as she comes back in the CERF Stakes (race 4) is do you just give her a pass, say she needs the rest, and climb on board what will be a crowded bandwagon as she drops, or do you worry that her less-than-stellar Beyer is a sign that she may not be as good as she once was? It’s no shame to lose to Judy the Beauty, but some of Reneesgotzip’s best races came off a layoff, so historically, she hasn’t been a horse who needed a run off the bench.
The best news is that trainer Peter Miller wheels her back fairly quickly for this, and she doesn’t have to be the Reneesgotzip of old to beat this group over a track she likes (she had won her first three starts over this track before that Aug. 17 defeat).
FOR THOSE SEEKING A FREE SQUARE
He is going to be a very short price, and everyone is going to use him in their multirace wagers. But things still look too good for SEEKING THE SHERIF in race 2, the restricted Pirate’s Bounty. The Ron Ellis trainee comes off a fine third in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, beaten just two lengths. The two who beat him that day, Big Macher and Goldencents, are, along with Secret Circle, the best sprinters in Southern California and maybe the country.
Ellis could easily have felt good enough about Seeking the Sherif to wheel him back in last week’s Grade 2 Pat O’Brien but opted to avoid those deep waters again as well as give his runner an extra week between starts. It figures to pay off. The horse signaled that he’s doing great with a bullet 46-second work here last Friday (best of 30 at four furlongs that day).
Sure, he’s going to be hammered at the windows, but he may give you a free space for your early double, two pick threes (races 1-3, 2-4), and the pick five. Take it.
SPOT PLAY
Race 3
FIGHTER SQUADRON (#5, 5-2) was a fine second for $20,000 here July 19 behind a nice horse named Dress Code, who just ran third for $20,000 here Aug. 24. Hess Jr. saw fit to claim him that day and brought him back in a tough starter allowance here Aug. 2 (where he couldn’t be claimed away and ran fourth). He’s back in for a tag, and that may be just what the doctor ordered. It’s also nice to see Desormeaux take the call (he’s piloted 10 of Hess’s first 11 winners at this meet).
HORSE TO WATCH
GRANDSTAND
Trainer: Cody Autrey
Last race: Aug. 31, 8th
Finish: 2nd by a head
Beyer: 90
He did everything right, but it took a horse who adores this place to frustrate him. He stalked in third while heavy favorite and Del Mar lover Diamond of Blue set the pace, set out after that foe into the lane, kept to his task doggedly, but just missed in a fine try, finishing well clear of third. He looks as though he’s turning the corner as that was a nice move forward in just his second start after nine months on the bench.