Preview, not mirror, of Cup

NEW YORK - The quintet of Grade 1 stakes at Belmont Park Saturday comprises the deepest, richest card of racing so far this season. The five races, each corresponding precisely in surface and distance to a Breeders' Cup race that will be run at Belmont on Oct. 29, might seem highly likely to produce the winners of those main events four weeks hence.

The historical record, however, suggests that it can be dangerous to take the results of Breeders' Cup Preview Day too literally, even in years when the Breeders' Cup is run at Belmont. For the most part, it has proven as much a spawning ground of beaten favorites as of Cup winners.

The winners of the five races that will be run Saturday - the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, Flower Bowl, Beldame, and Vosburgh - fared poorly on the three previous occasions they returned to run in corresponding Cup races at Belmont. The 1990, 1995, and 2001 winners of those five races made a combined 10 Cup starts, and only Cigar, the 1995 Gold Cup and Classic winner, triumphed on both days.

Of the other nine, only Timboroa, who won the 2001 Turf Classic and returned to run third in the Breeders' Cup Turf, even hit the board. The other eight - Flying Continental, Cacoethes, and Go for Wand in 1990; Turk Passer, Serena's Song, and Not Surprising in 1995; and Aptitude and Lailani in 2001 - were all out of the money.

It would seem that a race over the track under Breeders' Cup conditions would be a highly advantageous prep, but the results of the three previous Breeders' Cups at Belmont don't particularly bear that out. Of the 22 Cup winners at Belmont in 1990, 1995, and 2001, it's a four-way photo to see where the most winners came from. Seven made their previous start at Belmont, six came off a race in Europe, five came from Southern California, and four from the Midwest.

Besides Cigar, the six other Cup winners who made their previous start at Belmont were either 2-year-olds or sprinters. Fly So Free and Meadow Star duplicated their Champagne and Frizette victories in 1990; Unbridled's Song and My Flag rebounded from defeats in those races to take the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies in 1995; Safely Kept came off a fourth in the 1995 Boojum to win the Sprint and Squirtle Squirt ran second in the 2001 Vosburgh before winning the Sprint.

The Belmont races that have proved less helpful than it seems they should are the Turf Classic and the Beldame. The three previous Breeders' Cup Turfs at Belmont were dominated by Europeans, who won it with In the Wings in 1990 and Fantastic Light in 2001 and ran 2-3-4 behind Northern Spur in 1995. The three Distaffs run at Belmont have all been won by horses coming out of Keeneland's Spinster rather than the Beldame - Bayakoa in 1990, Inside Information in 1995, and Unbridled Elaine in 2001.

That last bit of history may be severely tested this year, however, because on paper the Beldame is the strongest of Saturday's five races, having drawn five of anyone's top six or seven Distaff contenders in Ashado, Society Selection, Sweet Symphony, Dream of Summer, and Island Sand.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is an intriguing race on paper, with the 3-year-olds Flower Alley and Sun King taking on the California-based 4-year-olds Lava Man, Borrego, and Imperialism, but seems likely to produce no better than the third choice for the $4 million Classic four weeks later. Saint Liam, who will go straight from the Woodward to the Classic, and Rock Hard Ten, who returns in the Goodwood at Santa Anita Saturday, are the likely top two Classic choices.

The Gold Cup and Beldame are terrific betting races and part of an all-stakes pick four that figures to be a lot juicier than the last two in New York. On Travers Day, hooking up Leroidesanimaux, First Samurai, Lost in the Fog, and Flower Alley was worth only $62.50 for $2, and the Woodward Day return on In The Gold, Luas Line, Better Talk Now, and Saint Liam was just $111. Coming up with the winners of the Beldame, Turf Classic, Gold Cup and Flower Bowl figures to be a lot more rewarding. Every leg looks tough.

That's the part that really is a preview. Difficult and competitive as Saturday's races look, they will only be harder four weeks later with full fields and new faces from California, Kentucky, and Europe. Good as Saturday's fields at Belmont may be, history suggests those new faces will produce even more of the winners on Breeders' Cup Day.