Preakness betting victim of perfect storm

While betting on Saturday’s Preakness Stakes did not keep pace with record figures for this year’s Kentucky Derby, the significant decline in wagering may have been more a function of the circumstances surrounding the race then on any drop-off in attention to racing’s biggest events.

Betting on the Preakness dropped from $58.6 million last year to $52.7 million this year, a 10.1 percent decline, which was in stark contrast to both a 7 percent jump in Derby betting this year and, more significantly, a double-digit jump in betting on the undercard races at Pimlico Race Course on Preakness Day. Up to the Preakness, handle on the undercard races at Pimlico was up 35 percent, or $8 million, according to charts (the figure for 2015 is for 12 races prior to the Preakness, while the 2014 figure is for 11 races), a signal that the sport’s best customers had their bankrolls focused on Pimlico on Saturday.

Some obvious factors surrounding this year’s Preakness account for part of the drop in betting. First off, this year’s Preakness had eight runners, compared with 10 last year, and field size is always a prime determinant of handle on a race.

California Chrome was a 1-2 favorite in the Preakness last year, and American Pharoah was a 9-10 favorite this year. While a lower-priced favorite tends to depress betting, this year’s race featured three horses that were widely expected to fill out the exacta and trifecta. Firing Line, the second choice, was 3-1, and Dortmund, the third choice, was 9-2, with all others in the field at double-digit odds. Last year, only one horse other than California Chrome was less than double-digit odds, Social Inclusion, at 5-1, with eight others at 10-1 or higher, an indication that horseplayers were stretching last year for horses to fill out the exotic spots.

In other words, this year’s Preakness just wasn’t a good betting race, one in which bettors felt like juicy exacta, trifecta, or superfecta payouts were in the offing. That opinion showed up most starkly in the size of the exacta and trifecta pools. The exacta pool was down 26 percent, or more than $3 million, while the trifecta pool was down 17 percent, or $2.3 million. Meanwhile, the straight pool was down only 2 percent.

Finally, the heavy rains that fell on Pimlico just prior to the Preakness changed the complexion of the race significantly. American Pharoah had proven form on a sloppy track – albeit one dominating race against overmatched foes – but his main rivals had run exclusively over dry fast tracks. Bettors already put off by potentially low payouts who were waiting until post time to put in large exacta or trifecta were far more likely to pull back from the send button after the track was reduced to a sloppy mess. Indeed, exotic betting figures barely moved in the five minutes leading up to post, according to a real-time observation of the tote feeds for the race.

While Pimlico reported that attendance Saturday was a record at 131,680, other figures indicated that this Preakness didn’t resonate quite so loudly as last year, when California Chrome was considered a budding superstar after his popular Derby win. The overnight rating for the Preakness broadcast on NBC was a 5.8, down 7 percent from last year. That’s still a healthy number, good enough to beat most individual sports broadcasts during the year, but it’s also an indication that American Pharoah has not quite captivated the public like California Chrome.

That could change in the weeks leading up to the Belmont Stakes. A Triple Crown always captures outsized attention, and with each passing year that a horse fails at the feat, interest seems to grow. In addition, as good as California Chrome was, American Pharoah probably has a bit more respect within the racing community as a Triple Crown candidate than the 2014 Derby and Preakness winner. American Pharoah was a 2-year-old champion, with high expectations stretching back to last fall.

So despite the drop in Preakness betting, the racing world is likely on good footing going into the Belmont. On the micro-scale, the drop in betting on the Preakness didn’t even hurt Pimlico. Aided by all-day live coverage by TVG of the Preakness card for the first time in years, Pimlico had a record $85.2 million in total handle for the 14 races Saturday, up 1.6 percent over last year’s 13-race card, despite the $5.9 million drop in Preakness betting. That bettors poured that much money into undercard races while shying away from a strange and unattractive edition of the feature race shouldn’t be cause for worry. In fact, it’s evidence that horseplayers are smarter than the industry often gives them credit for.