Preakness 2021 post-race analysis
For the second time of the last four that the Preakness has been run two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, a fresh horse proved best. This time it was ROMBAUER, who got the pace duel he craves compared to what unfolded in his prior start, the Blue Grass, resulting in an 11-1 upset Saturday at Pimlico.
He got a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 102 for the victory.
In the Blue Grass, Rombauer was compromised by a paceless race in which Highly Motivated and Essential Quality were the top two the entire race. He ran on well to be third, hindered by an opening six furlongs in 1:12.08 that enabled the top two to storm through the final three furlongs of that 1 1/8-mile race in 36.42 seconds.
In the Preakness, the first six furlongs were run in 1:10.97. Not only was that significantly faster than the Blue Grass, it also was faster than the Derby, whose first six furlongs were run in 1:11.21; the faster pace, two-week turnaround, and having a horse like MIDNIGHT BOURBON breathing down his neck instead of Soup and Sandwich all were too much for MEDINA SPIRIT to overcome. Midnight Bourbon won that battle, but lost the war.
Rombauer was acting up while being saddled, but was fine during the race. He settled into a comfortable rhythm heading up the backside while between rivals. He crept closer heading to the half-mile pole, split FRANCE GO DE INA and CONCERT TOUR early on the far turn, was ridden along late on the far turn to go after the two leaders, had dead aim in upper stretch and was met with little resistance inside the furlong pole. He was trained to the minute by Michael – yes, Michael, not Mike – McCarthy, and got a brilliant ride from Flavien Prat, who continues to prove in events like this that he’s as good as any rider in the country.
Midnight Bourbon, hampered by a compromised trip in the Derby, was on the attack early in this spot, hounding Medina Spirit to assure the Derby winner was not afforded an easy early lead, especially when Medina Spirit’s stablemate, Concert Tour, was not ridden to engage. Midnight Bourbon was part of that quick pace, got the best of Medina Spirit in upper stretch, but was no match late for Rombauer and had to settle for second.
Medina Spirit, who was third, was aggressively sent away from the gate to take the lead, with Midnight Bourbon applying pressure. He was kept a bit off the rail heading down the backside, fended off Midnight Bourbon until upper stretch, but was clearly going the worse of the two at that point and emptied out. He’s a gritty performer, but he’s a slight horse, and the two-week turnaround had to impact him more so than a robust horse like Midnight Bourbon.
KEEPMEINMIND, who was fourth, made it a 2-3-4 finish for the three horses exiting the Derby. He was off poorly and was in front of just one horse entering the backside. He got a fairly clean, ground-saving trip on the far turn and only swung out late, similar to his trip in the Derby, though he didn’t have to be fanned as wide coming off the bend. He ran on decently, but was zero threat to the top three.
CROWDED TRADE, who was fifth, saved ground down the backside, had his chance, simply wasn’t good enough and probably doesn’t want to run this far. He did fare better than his stablemate, RISK TAKING, but both franked the form of the ugly Wood Memorial, whose top two finishers were nowhere in the Derby.
France Go de Ina, who was seventh, was reluctant to load initially, but was forwardly placed early behind the top two, then made a move inside Medina Spirit heading to the far turn that initially was reminiscent of the way the filly Swiss Skydiver knifed inside of Authentic in last year’s Preakness. His bid was short-lived, though. France Go de Ina tailed off over the final three furlongs.
Risk Taking, who was eighth, was wide and dull, three paths wide on the first turn, three to four paths wide on the far turn while never making any impact whatsoever.
Concert Tour, who was ninth, was dreadful. He stalked the top two early, was kept wide, began a steady retreat three furlongs out, and stopped badly. As bad as his performance was in the Arkansas Derby – and it was so bad it kept him out of the Kentucky Derby – this was worse.