Preakness 2021: Mike Welsch's picks and analysis

MIDNIGHT BOURBON came into the Kentucky Derby giving every indication he was sitting on a peak effort, having paired up career-best Beyer Speed Figures in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby while training like a horse ready for yet another forward move. Expected to be forwardly placed coming by the grandstand the first time, Midnight Bourbon was nowhere to be found during the early going, essentially forfeiting all chance right off the bat in light of the way the race played out. He did well to beat 13 others, despite racing wide around both turns. Having had six weeks between starts coming into the Derby, Midnight Bourbon should not have an issue with the two-week turnaround. The likely third betting choice, he is deserving of a mulligan for his Derby going into the middle leg of the Triple Crown.

It will be interesting how the pace scenario plays out in this race, considering the two logical speed horses, MEDINA SPIRIT and Concert Tour, are stablemates under the Baffert shed and not likely to engage one another right out of the blocks. I will assume Medina Spirit will be sent along again from his inside post trying to replicate the same trip that led to his Derby magic. It remains to be seen how much of an effect the grueling stretch duel with Mandaloun in the Derby will have during the latter stages of this race, as Medina Spirit, too, will be wheeling back on relatively short rest off far and away a career-best performance.

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Like Midnight Bourbon, KEEPMEINMIND did not get a very good trip in the Derby yet showed some late interest and is eligible to get a much better setup if able to secure a cleaner run in this smaller lineup without that mad Derby rush to the first turn. Seems like he could be cycling around to a repeat of his big performance behind division elites Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

CONCERT TOUR has posted his two victories on the front end, so he may wind up having to do something he has never done before, win from off the pace, if the strategy is to avoid a potentially disastrous speed duel with his stablemate. His ability to get the distance also could prove an issue, although this guy has too much class to dismiss him.

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