Preakness 2021: Marcus Hersh's picks and analysis

MEDINA SPIRIT probably just is too much for this moderate Preakness bunch – “probably” enough that I can’t quite get to legitimately trying to beat him even at the expected price, which is going to be much, much, much lower than the 12-1 at which those sharp enough to tab him in the Derby cashed. It seems impossible the two Bob Baffert-trained colts, Medina Spirit and Concert Tour, wind up dueling with one another. Not quite as difficult to envision, but also extremely difficult to imagine, is the connections of the front-running Derby winner, who appears to thrive racing on the lead, taking back, letting Concert Tour and, possibly, Midnight Bourbon hook up and working out a stalking trip. Have to think Medina Spirit will be treated like the fastest and best horse in the Preakness – a rational assumption – and be allowed to lead, leaving Concert Tour and his new jockey, Mike Smith, to mess around with Midnight Bourbon, ridden in the Derby by none other than Smith. So, that’s my guess: Medina Spirit wire to wire.

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ROMBAUER looks like the forgotten horse and best value, though calling him forgotten implies widespread distinct acknowledgement, and maybe Rombauer never quite got there. I’ve never been high on the horse, but he did have the qualifying points to make the Derby and instead was held out to prepare for this start. The freshening into his third start at 3 could yield improvement the horses exiting the Derby won’t find. Rombauer is no Medina Spirit on talent yet has shown sufficient ability that one might talk oneself into a high placing if things break the right way, foremost among them the horse himself stepping up to put forth a career-best performance. While no match for Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in the Blue Grass, Rombauer didn’t get the right trip that day, racing just a length behind a modest tempo while clearly better suited to rating along well off the gallop and making one later run. Presumably, those tactics can be deployed to useful effect at Pimlico, and while Rombauer’s April 30 work failed to catch the eye, his final Preakness drill provided sufficient encouragement.

CROWDED TRADE appeals considerably more than Risk Taking, if we are taking the pulse of Chad Brown’s Preakness contingent. Slogging along at a slow tempo over the incredibly laboring Aqueduct surface in the Wood Memorial didn’t seem like this colt’s game, and I wonder if a move away from the deep, tiring surface where he’s made his three starts won’t reveal a slightly more brilliant colt. He could comfortably fall into a stalking trip leading to a slingshot run off the far turn – possibly his best chance to obtain a high placing. Like Rombauer, he’s fresh.

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Will side with MIDNIGHT BOURBON over CONCERT TOUR for fourth. Midnight Bourbon did appear to resent the kickback going under the Churchill wire the first time, but it’s hard to peg him for any upside whatsoever at this stage of his campaign. The way Concert Tour’s form looks right now, with the horses coming out of the San Vicente, the Rebel, and the Arkansas Derby, I wonder how much substance was ever really there.